Arsenal vs. Dinamo Zagreb: focus up to lock it down
Today at 12:07 PM
The Gunners are angling for a Top 8 spot in the table.
Arsenal host Dinamo Zagreb on Matchday 7 of the Champions League '24-'45 league phase at the Emirates this evening. The Gunners are in a great position to earn a Top 8 spot and avoid the extra knockout round. Arsenal are on 13 points and 16 should be enough to claim one of those coveted spots. The visitors, on the other hand, are on 8 points, level with Manchester City for 24th, the last spot in the table that advances from the league phase.
It's tough to get a read on the visitors. They haven't played a competitive match in more than a month — the Croatian league takes an extended winter break — nor have they played a competitive match under new manager Fabio Cannavaro, who was appointed to turn around what has been a disastrous domestic season by the club's standards. They sit in third place, seven points off the top in a league they've won for seven consecutive years.
Cannavaro, a World Cup winner with Italy, has not had much success as a manager, with his stints at various clubs notable more for their brevity than anything else. Mikel Arteta remarked that they watched Dinamo's two recent friendlies and will be prepared, but I'd wager even Arsenal have to guess a bit at what Cannavaro wants to do with his side.
Oddly enough, Zagreb's two wins in the Champions League came on the road — 2-0 over RB Salzburg (with an RB red card) and 4-1 over Slovan Bratislava. They were also mauled by Bayern Munich 9-2 on MD1 and lost 3-0 to Borussia Dortmund at the end of November.
The visitors have conceded in 9 of their last 10 Champions League matches. Arsenal have a scintillating record at home in the CL under Mikel Arteta. This season, they've allowed just 16 shots through 6 CL matches, the second-fewest in the competition.
Arsenal, even with the injuries and fatigue, should have more than enough to win at home against Dinamo Zagreb. As I've said throughout the CL however, it's a tough competition. Weird things happen. The visitors are desperate for a result to keep alive their hopes of advancing. And while there are signs that Arsenal's ice-cold finishing streak is melting away, the attack isn't exactly flying high in Bukayo Saka's absence, either.
The Arsenal defense will be without William Saliba, who picked up a muscle injury against Tottenham that will keep him out until at least the Manchester City match on February 2nd. With Ben White and Takehiro Tomiyasu not ready to return to action, it means that Thomas Partey will likely draw into right back again. Arsenal's results with the midfielder at fullback have not been great this season.
The point is that there are realistic, albeit unlikely, scenarios where Arsenal don't get three points tonight. I don't think any of us have to work all that hard to imagine them, either. The visitors find a way to score — someone smashes a worldie, the ball takes a bad bounce, a defender does something daft — and Arsenal's finishing touch deserts them.
If Zagreb are going to get anything from the match, it'll likely be because of either (or both) of Sadro Kulenovic, who has 11 goals in 23 matches in all competitions, and Martin Baturina. The intriguing 21-year old playmaker has 7 assists through 21 matches and has chipped in with 2 goals. He's likely on the radar for bigger clubs around Europe. Keep an eye on Marko Pjaca (4G, 4A), too.
In addition to Saliba, Ben White, and Tomiyasu, Mikel Arteta will be without Gabriel Jesus and Bukayo Saka. The Brazilian forward had successful ACL surgery in the last day or two and is on the 6-9 month road to recovery. Arteta confirmed nothing had changed with Bukayo Saka's three-month recovery timeline — he's not going to be back until at least mid-March and early April seems a more likely target for when he might return.
The good news is that both Riccardo Calafiori and Ethan Nwaneri returned to training and are available for selection. Neither are likely to start but one or both might get run-outs.
Tonight's result is likely to have significant downstream, knock-on effects for the rest of Arsenal's season. A win, which likely secures a T8 spot, takes two tricky matches off the fixture list and gives the club the space in the schedule to take a warm-weather, mid-season training trip. The Dubai trip last season was transformational for the club. Dropped points, on the other hand, puts undue pressure on the final league phase match away to Girona. Arsenal need to win at home.
Lineups will be posted.
WHO: Arsenal vs Dinamo Zagreb
WHAT: Champions League, league stage MD 7
WHERE: The Emirates
WHEN: Wednesday, January 22nd, 12:00 pm PT | 3:00 pm ET | 8:00 PM GMT
HOW TO WATCH: Streaming on Paramount+
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