A huge week in the promotion run-in begins with Bradford City, Port Vale and Crewe getting to know each other even better

03/28/2025 04:00 AM

By Jason McKeown

37.5% of the remaining regular League Two season takes place over the next eight days. And amongst the 36 fixtures that will happen, there are three that especially stand out for quirky reasons.

It's a weird round robin, mini-league between the Bantams, the Valiants and the Railwaymen. And given their respective league positions, it's one that has huge implications.

Let's start with Saturday's derby match at Gresty Road. After the surprise midweek defeat against Barrow, Port Vale are still outside the autos, lying in fourth place with 64 points – five behind Bradford City. If they lose to their local rivals, Vale leave themselves at risk of a gap opening up to the autos, and of being overtaken by Doncaster and Notts County (Donny start this weekend with a game in hand too). All of which could greatly influence Vale's state of mind when welcoming City to Vale Park on Tuesday.

And what of Crewe? They've not won in four games (drawing their last three) to drop out of the play off places. The two teams immediately above them – Grimsby and Colchester – lock horns on Friday. So by the time they kick off against Vale on Saturday lunchtime, they could be four points off the top seven. Either way, a win over Vale is vital. Lose, and the situation could look bleak.

While Port Vale and City do battle on Tuesday, Crewe welcome Grimsby in another promotion six pointer. That's two massive matches in a week for Alex, before they face another huge encounter in West Yorkshire. They could rock up at Valley Parade a week on Saturday very much in the hunt, or their season could be effectively over. Either way, the next two games will vastly impact their mindset when stepping out onto the Valley Parade pitch.

This is the volatile nature of this League Two promotion race. There are always twists and turns in any divisional run-in, but this is a squeaky bum period full of six-pointers that mean the picture is likely to change quickly and often.

Walsall, City, Wimbledon, Grimsby and Colchester United all still have to play four of the top nine teams in the division. Notts County face three. Port Vale, Crewe and Doncaster have five of the top nine still to play. Every weekend there are six pointers with huge implications for the teams involved and those around them. And that makes it very difficult to predict who will ultimately triumph in this keenly fought promotion battle.

Let's look just at each automatic promotion contender's remaining fixtures, and focus purely on the current league position of the opponents they face (rather than the order of games left), to show just how no one has it easy.

The colours relate to percentile ranking of difficulty. Red means a fixture against a team currently 1-6th (top quartile difficulty), the orange 7-12th (second quartile), yellow is 13-18th (third quartile) and green is 19-24th (bottom quartile difficulty)

Looking at that, you'd have to say Doncaster have the toughest run-in, with lots of red and six of their remaining nine games coming against teams in the top 10. Notts County arguably have the easiest end of season fixture list, with three of their eight games against sides in the yellow third quartile – who generally don't have anything left to play for but pride – plus one from the bottom quartile. But no one is getting it easy.  

For City, their fixtures bring enormous opportunity. To pretty much guarantee promotion, they need to finish above Port Vale, Doncaster and Notts County – and they have to play each of them. It shows just how much it is in their hands.

A few weeks ago, we spoke about the run-in and the division's big fixtures round-by-round. These next eight days alone are testament to the six-pointer frequency. Outside the Crewe, Vale and City sagas, AFC Wimbledon travel to Walsall this weekend, then on Tuesday it's Doncaster vs Walsall. And then next Saturday Walsall entertain Port Vale and Colchester welcome Notts County.

Any team who gets through these next eight days with seven points or more has had an exceptional week, because everywhere you look promotion rivals are going to drop points.

For City, the six-pointers begin after a Saturday lunchtime trip to Accrington, 20th in League Two. And on paper it looks like a decent fixture to have. If you could pick who to face in a promotion run-in, you'd likely choose opponents as far down the table as possible, but perhaps not a team right at the bottom and in the midst of fighting for their lives.

Accrington tick both these boxes. They're not completely safe yet, but have a healthy 10-point cushion and will feel reasonably confident in planning to be a League Two side next season. Of course they will want to defeat the Bantams, but they won't have the same intensity as a Morecambe or Carlisle might have at this stage of the season. They're almost over the line, almost ready to get on the beach. And if they lose to the Bantams, it won't be the end of their world.

All of which represents a big opportunity for a City side who still aren't amazing away from home. It's now five victories on the road, after that lovely week recently where City triumphed at Bromley and at Salford. But losing at a poor Gillingham side in the last away game underlines that City's record outside of Valley Parade still isn't wonderful. They have the 13th best away record in the division. And given Accrington have the third worst home record in the league, this is a game they have to target winning.

Because after that, it's Port Vale away. The side who – even after losing to Barrow at Vale Park on Tuesday – have the division's fourth-best home record. Port Vale have won 10, drawn six and lost three on home soil. Prior to Tuesday, the last time they were defeated in the league on their own patch was in December. Beyond Barrow, the only other sides to win at Vale Park are Doncaster and Walsall.

If seven points represents an exceptional week at this business end of the season, City need to not lose at Vale Park as a minimum. It will keep a side chasing them at arm's length, and set them up nicely for that weekend home match against Crewe in front of another bumper Valley Parade crowd.

One step at a time though. For now, it's Accrington away. And with Walsall not kicking off until 3pm, victory will put City top of the league for a few hours at least. This is a really crucial moment of the season, and though the team's focus is obviously on what they need to do, for many supporters this huge eight day period will be consumed with half an eye on the permutations of other results.