Comparing Bradford City

Yesterday at 03:00 AM

By Dan Thornton

When the quality of the match starts to deteriorate, which is fairly often these days, I find myself staring at the near-empty TL Dallas stand wondering where we, as a club, have potential to be. It doesn't feel like we should be sitting in mid-table in the fourth division forever but, make no mistake, it's exactly where we deserve to be at the moment.

If this club was run effectively, where should it aspire to be when compared to other clubs with a similar level of resource? This is where a lot of subjectivity comes in because how do you compare us to other clubs – what criteria do you use? I've attempted to identify a few and see how we fare against other teams. There was a recent WOAP piece looking specifically at our leadership structure and it's well worth reading before looking at these wider comparisons.

I need to start this piece with a bit of a disclaimer – it's not to be taken too seriously. Having said that, it doesn't mean there aren't things to learn from it. I gathered my stats from several internet sources, and will no doubt have missed some details, but I hope the overall picture is fairly accurate. All data – including current league positions – was collected in the days following the home win against Swindon. I also need to thank Wayne Finter for his thoughts and suggestions on the piece.

It’s worth noting that there are multiple factors which contribute to a club's success and some are more measurable than others. Ambition, for example, is very difficult to calculate and compare – a lot of it's down to what we hear from those in charge and, let's be honest, all we've heard about in recent years is that we seek to exist in League Two without going bust. 'Sustainability' sells, though, it seems, because Bantams fans continue to turn out in great numbers – as my first comparison category shows.

When making comparisons in each category, I have looked to identify six or so teams (usually three above and three below us in the statistics). I have then taken the current average league ranking of these teams and, in brackets, equated that to a position in the 92-team football pyramid.

Our current actual league position = 78th (10th in League Two)

Comparison 1: Attendance

Average league position = 41st (21st in the Championship)

For attendance, the teams closest to us are Huddersfield (18,200), Charlton (14,000), Swansea (15,500), Plymouth (16,500), Preston (16,500) and Brentford (17,000). These clubs are all currently sat in 58th, 68th, 30th, 43rd, 36th and 11th in the football pyramid, respectively.

Arguably, our club's biggest asset is its fan base – we are what keeps this club going. We have an average attendance of just over 16,700 so far this season. Remarkable, really, given the continual failure of our side to obtain promotion out of League Two. Yes, I know this number comes with a huge 'but' – we all know that the numbers in the ground do not match those published of late.

However, we have a fanbase with the potential to rival many clubs in the Championship. There will be those who shout about season ticket prices here (we'll come to those in more detail later), but football should be affordable. Having high season ticket prices is nothing to be proud of – it might be required to keep some clubs afloat, but football should be as accessible as possible to as many as possible.

What does this average tell us? To me, it says that those in charge of Bradford City are seriously taking for granted the supporters. It's only when there's been the suggestion that numbers might drop that we've really heard from those in charge of the club. We can look back to the protests earlier in the year and the letter to supporters to see that the club acknowledge the fanbase, but only when there's a crisis and only by doing the bare minimum to address it. The sudden up-turn in form at the end of last season did a lot to paper over cracks and create a false sense of progress.

Ultimately, this is fanbase that wouldn't be amiss for a team battling to stay in the Championship (Memories of Nigel Pepper's goal against QPR). The average home attendance in League Two (including ours) is 5,900 so far this season. Notts County at 10,700 are the club nearest to us. If supporter numbers at City were to drop down towards the league average, we would be in serious trouble, as our business model is based on selling a high volume of season tickets at reasonable prices, rather than a lower volume at higher prices.

Comparison 2: Population

Average league position = 26th (6th in Championship)

I sometimes hear people say, 'A city the size of Bradford shouldn't be in League Two'. Using the 2021 ONS built-up areas data, the three places above us are Bristol (425k), Leicester (344k) and Coventry (333k). They sit 31st (Bristol City), 74th (Bristol Rovers), 17th and 35th respectively in the EFL pyramid. Notably, Bristol manages to maintain two football league clubs, which are both in leagues above us.

The three places which sit just below our population of 334k are Nottingham (300k), Newcastle (286k) and Brighton (277k) – all of these places have teams in the top-flight and occupy the 4th, 12thand 9th positions in the Premier League. Like Bristol, Nottingham is also another city that has two football league teams.

When you look purely at the population numbers, it's hard to believe we're sat in the middle of the fourth division. Of course, there are many more factors to be taken into account with population but, when you look at these figures alongside comparison one, it's an interesting combination. You have to travel all the way down to 17th in the built-up areas list to Milton Keynes (197k) before you come to another area which doesn't have a team in the top two divisions.

Bradford is also the youngest city in the UK by population, with nearly 26% per cent of residents under 18 compared with 21% nationally. A young city could mean generations of City fans to come, but it feels like there's very little reason for them to travel to Valley Parade at the moment. What are we doing to bring young fans in?

Of course, with a city the size of Bradford we should probably note that 22% of children in the city live below the poverty line and that will have an impact. The club do offer much cheaper tickets to local schools for some matches and anything we can actively do to grow the future fanbase will only benefit the club. The sad reality is that, without a quality product on the pitch, the vast majority will likely not return.

Comparison 3: Geography

Average position = 46th (2nd in League One)

So how do we compare to other clubs in Yorkshire? Does the success or failure of other clubs in your locality impact your own? That's almost impossible to say, but it does tell you something about the appetite for football nearby and might, in some circumstance, explain why crowds in one place are low as fans go to watch the more successful neighbour. Remember, though, our crowds are very good.

In Yorkshire the teams we are up against in this category are Sheffield United (21st), Leeds (22nd), Middlesborough (26th), Sheffield Wednesday (29th), Hull (44th), Huddersfield (48th), Barnsley (51st), Rotherham (61st), Doncaster (73rd) and Harrogate (88th).

Just one Yorkshire club sits below us and we've probably lost count of how many times they've beaten us since they joined League Two. Looking at the top of the National League table right now, it's not beyond the realms of possibility to think that York and/or Halifax could be above us by this time next year.

Comparison 4: Season Ticket Price

Average position = 63rd (19th in League One)

Much has been made about the lower cost of our season tickets since they were introduced and it's something the club should be applauded for. Other clubs do offer better-priced tickets, and it would be unfair to suggest that affordable prices mean fans should settle for a low quality, lower league product.

Some of the comparable cheaper tickets are Cardiff (£279), Fleetwood (£269), Blackpool (£289), Leyton Orient (£289), Doncaster (£275) and Mansfield (£315).

Two of the clubs quoted compete against us in League Two, but the others are in League One and the Championship. When you factor in our attendance numbers, basement-level football should not be an automatic consequence of offering cheaper season ticket prices.

Comparison 5: Wages

Average league position = 77th (9th in League Two)

We are getting into the trickier comparisons now as data is harder to source online, but it seems our wage bill is ca. £4m a year. The teams I identified with similar outlays are Swindon (90th), Salford (80th), Leyton Orient (62nd), Crawley (65th), Carlisle (92nd) and Gillingham (77th).

Now we would expect the average position of the other teams and our own to be much closer in this comparison category – not least because of Financial Fair Play rules. So what does this comparison tell us?

For me, it shows we are doing exactly as expected. The product on the field is inevitably what drives a league position season-on-season. Our club appear to have invested in a team to finish in the middle of the League Two table.

This fits with everything we've heard about sustainability and suggests to me that our main hope of getting out of this division is to strike it lucky with one of the many managers we hire – essentially to stumble upon someone who can work miracles with a lower budget, which we did try a few years ago… And if we do get out of the division, what then?

Comparison 6: Owner Net Worth

Average league position = 52nd (8th League One)

Like comparison 5, this one is tricky. From the data I could find, it's suggested Bradford City owner Stefan Rupp is worth ca. £100m. When looking at owners' worth between £100-£150m (and data is limited, so there will be ones I have inevitably missed), I ended up with Watford (27th), Millwall (33rd), Rotherham (56th) and Swindon (90th).

What I find interesting about this particular comparison is that Rupp's takeover of the club in 2016 came after a season where we finished 5th in League One. At the end of that season our then-owners felt they couldn't take us any further and sold up to new owners who it appeared had the resources to certainly fund a League One club and, looking at the limited data, arguably a Championship one.

Money does not buy success though. The new owners dismantled the side Stuart McCall had built, deciding against offering contract extensions to some of the key older members of the squad, and invested their resources poorly.

I have read reports that we had one of the largest budgets in League One the season we got relegated and there is a lot to be said here for correct and wise investment. Have we spent our budgets wisely both on and off the field? We have had some decent players here over the last few years, but, as a resource, they haven't always been managed correctly. You only have to look at Eoin Doyle's loan spell with Swindon and the recent fiasco with Jake Young to see this.

Have we invested in the right people off the field to help drive success? The short-lived Abbott and Collins era witnessed a mixed approach to recruitment, where more experienced players were brought in alongside younger ones from higher-level clubs. Having a plan to invest with the view to making money later is a good model, but we seem to have moved away from that approach and, to be honest, I've no idea what our recruitment model is now.

This all goes back to the club's vision and ethos, its long-term plan. Do we have one?

Comparison 7: Length of manager in charge

Average league position = 52nd (8th in League One)

Finally, this is a rather random comparison to make, but I did wonder where other teams with managers who'd been in charge a year or so were. Graham Alexander was appointed Bradford City manager in November 2023 after a protracted recruitment campaign from Ryan Sparks to find Mark Hughes' successor.

The clubs with managers with a similar tenure to Alexander are Tranmere (87th), Sheffield Wednesday (29th), QPR (38th), Bristol City (31st), Lincoln (53rd) and Grimsby (75th).

Let's take a look at three managers in League Two, who have seen recent success in their second season in-charge: Scott Lindsey, Steve Evans and Derek Adams. Lindsey was appointed Crawley manager in January 2023 and guided them to promotion via the play-offs the following year. Derek Adams first joined Morecambe in November 2019 and, like Lindsey, saw play-off success in his second season. Both managers took teams that finished 22nd one season to the play-offs the next. Steve Evans joined Stevenage in March 2022 and finished one place higher than Lindsey and Adams in 21st that first year. The following season they were promoted automatically in 2nd place.

We have finished 6th and 9th the last two seasons, so you'd expect a more established squad ready to kick on. There should be no reason we cannot see progress and success after a year of the current management set up.

There's certainly still time for us to have a successful season but, as always for us, there's an awful lot riding on the January transfer window.

Finally, the average position of all the comparisons above (excluding wages, because that would naturally increase were we to move up the divisions) = 47th (3rd in League One)

Pretty much where we were before all this started…