Graham Alexander thinks Bradford City will come good again. Is he right?

Today at 03:00 AM

By Jason McKeown

The stop-start nature of this time of year definitely doesn't help. Neither does the weather. Bradford City had only one home league match scheduled for the month of November, but on Saturday Storm Bert put pay to Accrington's visit. By the time the Bantams welcome Barrow to Valley Parade on Tuesday 3 December, 38 days will have passed since their last home league match, when they were beaten 2-1 by Doncaster. Ahead of kick off that day, City were fifth and could have gone joint second. They're now 10th and could fall as low as 11th before Barrow come to town.

The biting West Yorkshire weather is one reason for the loss of momentum, but results of late haven't helped either. Since that Doncaster defeat, City have lost to Fleetwood in the league and Rotherham in the EFL Trophy. They drew 1-1 at Colchester in League Two – conceding a 99th minute equaliser, which made it feel like a loss. City have won just once – against non-league Aldershot in the FA Cup. In total, it's one victory in the last six games – just after they were threatening to really push on.

Should we be worried? Graham Alexander doesn't think so. Confidently stating ahead of the Accrington postponement, "We know where we need to improve and the wins will come." His track record over the past year offers him good reasons to be so bullish. City have certainly been in trickier spots and then come good. And when you throw in the mitigating factor of a crippling injury list that is showing some signs of easing, you can see why Alexander would adopt an optimistic outlook. "We had a really good period and now we're in a sticky patch. But I look at the team and the squad and think we can have a similar positive run again."

The problem for Alexander is his Bradford public has started to become more sceptical. There's a clear mood change in the air, as the tally of disappointing results and performances has grown. Without a recent unifying occasion of us all coming together for a home league match, social media noise has become a bit more relevant and darker in tone. If you cup your ear, you can just about make out the noise of knives starting to be sharpened again, towards those running the club. It feels way too premature to talk about another wasted season, but you can see the direction that the conversation is starting to go.

That's why Alexander needs to be proven right and quickly. This club is never far from a crisis. Never far away from the dam bursting, and negativity truly taking over. The big disappointment of the Accrington postponement is that Bradford City's season ideally needed the calm, soothing effects of a decent home win to steady the ship. Instead, we wait longer for the recent build up of frustration to go away. And up next, it's the high calamity stakes FA Cup encounter away to Derek Adams' Morecambe. That is not a game to lose right now, Graham.

At the moment, the outlook for City's season is coloured in greyness by recent showings, which suggest there are a number of issues in the team that can't fully be cured by a quieter treatment room. Has the club built a squad good enough to compete for promotion this season? Did the promised extra summer investment from Stefan Rupp actually take place? And of course, have they got the right man in Alexander to deliver success? We are getting to the point where each result is judged in those terms. And that's why there's a lot riding on Alexander's buoyancy.

Was too much weight placed on last season's late run of form?

It's widely agreed that 2023/24 was a bad season for Bradford City, yet they only missed on the play offs by a single point. The late burst of six wins in seven games took them from wilderness to the brink of the top seven. But in doing so, it might have papered over some of the cracks and led Alexander and the club into underestimating the level of rebuild needed.

For the match report of the 2023/24 final day thumping over Newport, I talked about the dangers of giving too much currency to the end of season flurry, citing the excellent Netflix series Drive to Survive. In one episode, Mercedes team principal Toto Wolf conceded that a strong end to a difficult 2022 season had given the team misguided belief going into the following year, which proved hugely disappointing. "Sticking to the concept from last year, holding onto it, because of the encouraging results at the end, it's the biggest failure."

We're a long way from making a similar conclusion over City, but it is definitely a worry that what worked so well for seven end-of-season games was too influential in the summer activity. You could equally argue it's the opposite though, and that the level of close season changes was too high, after a winning formula had been found. Only four of the starting XI against Newport that day can still be classed as guaranteed first team starters (Sam Walker, Richie Smallwood, Jamie Walker and Andy Cook). So far this season, the dual number 8s of Walker and Bobby Pointon have only rarely been paired together in the same way.

The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. Alexander unearthed a winning formula at the back end of last season, with the 3-5-2 that had one holding midfielder. It looked a really good approach to continue with this campaign. But recruitment to maintain and build on this strategy maybe hasn't quite gone to plan.

Which leads us onto talk about goalscoring.

Have City got a good enough second striker to play with Andy Cook?

Okay, lots have been said about this already. But worth rewinding to the start of the season and what the plan was here. Namely, that City had six strikers on the books, and good reasons to be optimistic.

Because on paper, it looked a good plan. Calum Kavanagh had arrived mid-season, scoring five goals and providing two assists from 10 starts. He was backed up by Tyler Smith, who got 12 goals in all competitions, plus Jake Young – with his prolific Swindon loan still fresh in everyone's minds. Olly Sanderson arrived on loan with a decent reputation. Vadaine Oliver was also back – hoping to recapture the form that saw him win the League One golden boot award in 2021/22.

In short, lots of good options to play alongside – and share the goal burden with – Andy Cook. And yet, it hasn't happened. Kavanagh is undoubtedly the big source of disappointment here. To get to December without a league goal is a real surprise. Kavanagh is clearly suffering from confidence and his form may well come good. He is a young player with real potential. But in the meantime, it leaves a big problem.

No one else has taken advantage of Kavanagh's struggles. Smith came into the season with plenty of doubts, and has shown nothing to disprove them. So much more is expected of Oliver – it just feels like we’re running down the clock now on the ill-judged three-year deal we gave him. Sanderson has shown flashes, and at least managed to score a couple of league goals – but consistency has been an issue.

Should Alexander have kept Young? Maybe, maybe not. Playing in League One for Stevenage, Young hasn't repeated his Swindon impact, with only one goal himself. Given what's happened at Valley Parade, had Young stayed he certainly would have got a chance. He may have grasped it better than his former striker rivals.

For now, Alexander seems to be struck waiting for someone to find form alongside Cook. Some supporters have urged him to try a different approach rather than two up front, but it seems unlikely to happen. When taking over as manager last November, Alexander said, "I've been a manager for 10 years, and I don't think I've ever played just one striker at any of my teams. I've always had two or three lads up front, because I want my teams to score goals."

Given he is pragmatist, Alexander might yet find he has to break his own rule here (or go more radical and try Bobby Pointon or promising youth team forward Harry Ibbitson). Because there's no getting away from the fact City are not scoring nearly enough goals outside of the still-brilliant Andy Cook.

Was the left wing back position under-thought in the summer?

This is probably one area where the recency bias of last season's late resurgence might have hindered the club's thinking over the summer. Tyreik Wright slotted in as left wing back over those final seven games, where he acquitted himself well. A second loan spell, that up until then had been underwhelming, suddenly had a happy ending. And over the summer, Wright's loan deal was made permanent.

So…a handful of games fielding a winger as left wing back, leading to us going into this season with a plan of fielding a winger as left wing back. It looked, well, risky. And it's proved that way. The opening day win over MK Dons offering a worrying preview of what was to come. Wright looked good going forward and provided an assist. But defensively he struggled badly. It’s not a role he knows well. He is learning it in front of our eyes.

Since then, Wright has been slightly better off the ball but also less effective on it. It’s just not quite working as well as we hoped. Wright got injured against Doncaster and is now out until the new year. Lewis Richards – a conventional left back, with some limitations as left wing back – has filled in pretty well. But now he's injured too.

The upshot is that City are using a system that relies heavily on wing backs, and yet haven’t recruited specialists for these roles. It's cost City on the right to a lesser extent, with Brad Halliday finding it tough going, but bringing in a proper right-sided wing back in Jay Benn has minimised the impact. The left side? It remains a problem. So much so that, last time out, Halliday was operating as an inverted left wing back. Two weeks before that, Pointon was deployed in this position.

In hindsight, City should have found themselves a specialist left wing back in the summer. January is a chance to rectify that.

Everyone was worried about City's defence this season, but it's struggled for other reasons

It was a big blow to lose Matty Platt in the summer. He wasn't always widely appreciated by fans, but he made a considerable difference to City whenever he played. Platt moved to Notts County, where he is thriving. With Daniel Oyegoke choosing to move elsewhere after his promising loan at City ended, there were big gaps to fill to a part of the team that generally performed well all season.

We worried about those summer replacements – Aden Baldwin, Neill Byrne and Callum Johnson – and whether they would leave us with a weaker backline. Byrne aside, it’s fair to say that the moves haven't worked out yet – but not for the reasons we might have expected. Baldwin and Johnson haven't been poor, they've just not been present. Injured on the sidelines. We are still yet to see a Johnson debut, and there is no indication he will be fit any time soon. Baldwin hasn’t played since August.

With Byrne also experiencing injury problems – plus Cairan Kelly suffering a bad injury that has seen him out of action since September –  others have had to come in. Jack Shepherd has been very good. Cheick Diabete has experienced mixed fortunes. Paul Huntington has surprisingly found opportunities hard to come by. The extent of injuries at one stage saw Alexander go 4-4-2, which was largely unsuccessful. You want your central defence to be settled, so relationships can be built. It's been anything but so far.

City have kept just one clean sheet in their last 11 league and cup games, and achieved four shut outs all season. They haven't conceded more than two goals in any game, so are certainly not hapless. But there is clearly room for improvement. Hopefully, this will prove the case when central defenders return – providing they are able to stay injury-free.

Some of the best performers from last season are not hitting the same heights

Sam Walker was an inspired January signing in the wake of Harry Lewis' departure, producing a series of brilliant displays. Over 20 appearances he conceded just 24 (from an expected goals conceded of 25.4). This means he was slightly over-performing his numbers.

This season, Walker has been decent but not infallible. The odd howler, and more than a few surely-he-should-have-saved-that goals conceded. 16 games and 17 goals conceded (from an expected goals conceded of 15.13). This means he is slightly under-performing his numbers. City don’t have proper competition for Walker beyond his goalkeeping coach Colin Doyle. So they are very reliant on Walker’s form not sliding any further.

Beyond Walker, Brad Halliday has endured a surprising dip in form after two years of such solid consistency. Bobby Pointon has struggled for game time and not always excelled when he has played. He still looks a great prospect and is clearly learning all the time. But he's not quite kicked on to the level he threatened to at the back end of last season. Hopefully, it will come very soon.

Pointon has just two league goals so far. While Jamie Walker only has one to his name, after 18 appearances. Last season, Walker played exactly double the amount of games (36), and scored nine goals. Breaking it down to league only, in 2023/24 Walker played 2,232 minutes and scored eight, averaging one goal every 279 minutes (1 in 3). So far this campaign, it’s one goal from 980 minutes.

Walker’s performances have largely been good. He’s got three assists (compared to five overall last time) and he has been a vital part of the high press approach Alexander wants to instil. But with the struggles of Cook strike partners, we need a few more goals Jamie, please.

During 2023/24’s end of season resurgence, you'd have put both Walkers, Pointon and Halliday in your top five performers. This time around, none of them are playing appallingly bad – it's just we know they are capable of contributing more when they are absolutely on top of their game.

At least Richie Smallwood can say his performances are better than 2023/24. And Clarke Oduor has shown a lot of promising indications he can step to first team regular. They join Cook and Benn in the positive column.

And beyond the defenders hopefully returning to fitness soon, City will hope to soon have the services of Antoni Sarcevic and Alex Pattison again. There’s also Corry Evans pushing for a bigger role. Greater options – and competition for places – can only improve overall standards.

Much for Alexander to ponder then, as supporters begin to ponder his capability to deliver success

When looking at each of these issues, Alexander clearly believes nothing is hopeless, and that it's only small margins stopping everything from clicking. It is not a bad squad, and there is clear depth when everyone is fit. With the January window beginning to come into view, recruitment should be about quality over quantity.

But it's undeniable that supporter disgruntlement with Alexander is beginning to grow. Doubts are starting to get louder, and his performance as manager of late hasn't been great. From being tactically outdone by Grant McCann, the bizarre team selection at Fleetwood, the negative, time-wasting approach at Colchester, to the inverted full backs against Rotherham. City have only won three of their last 11 league games. That is a slide.

So talk is brewing that Alexander is not the man. And that will only increase if they don’t start winning. It’s a well-worn path this isn’t it? Just in case you’re losing track, here’s how it regularly seems to work for managers at Valley Parade.

• August: We like the City manager
• September:Not sure about all of the manager’s signings
• October: Hmmmm
• November: What is that team selection? He’s so stubborn!
• December:First online calls for sacking, with an end of month away game featuring chants of “xxxx, your football is s**t!”
• January: Transfer panic
• February: Sack the manager

Yep, very much on track here. I may as well start getting the Alexander leaves article prepped for mid-February…

Or maybe this time it will be different. Because the club's recent, unsuccessful history of routinely swapping managers should guard us against rushing to drive the latest incumbent away. Wouldn’t it be nice to try and break that cycle, given its dismal results? What’s different to before now is David Sharpe has joined as head of football operations. When at Mansfield, Sharpe will have paid a role in the patience Nigel Clough was afforded for several seasons – patience that has proved to be well rewarded. Sharpe has spoken very positively of Alexander, and might be the one who protects him.

As a club we’ve invested too much in the cult of manager in recent years, from Adams to Mark Hughes. Right now, we’ve got a decent manager. I think we can all see he’s not the greatest in the world. That he makes mistakes and gets things wrong. That he’s probably limited in how far he could take us long-term. But equally, he has a plan. When it works, it works well. And you can see it is a plan capable of delivering promotion. Having got this far into letting him build it, we should not make any hasty decisions undoing it.

For me, Alexander deserves the season at least to prove he can deliver long overdue success to BD8. But the cycle above is there for all to see. His popularity is chipping away, and we’re not long off supporter dissent becoming vocal.

The next few games are crucial in making sure history doesn't repeat itself. Otherwise the other part of the cycle comes in.

• March: Doesn’t the new manager talk well? So much better than the last guy!
• April: Okay, we’re still not doing very well – but it’s not his team! Let’s get to the summer.
• May: End of season burst of form – hey, everything’s going to work out just fine next season! Don’t forget to renew your season ticket.
• August: We like the City manager.

A big few weeks then…

This bitty period is about to come to an end. Saturday heralds the start of a period of 11 games in six weeks. Fair to say, then, that we're going to learn an awful lot more about City's prospects over the next few weeks.

Whatever happens at Morecambe in the cup on Saturday, a return of regular League Two fixtures the Tuesday after needs to herald a period of positive momentum. But it won’t be easy. They've got some tricky games coming up, with fixtures against Crewe, Notts County, Port Vale and Chesterfield before the end of the year.

So there’s no better time for Alexander's optimism to be proven justified.