The stat which explains just why pundits won't put Chelsea in the title race yet

Today at 03:30 PM

Chelsea are having a really strong start to the season – they're miles ahead of where most pundits thought they'd be at this stage.

But a glance at the xG difference table on FBRef hints at a little caution for fans getting carried away and dreaming of a title race as we climbed to within just a point of second placed Man City over the weekend.

The difference between the xG we create per game and the xG we give away (essentially how good the chances we create are, minus the chances we give away), is 0.52/90. That's a very solid number, but it puts us fourth in the league not third. So that's your first hint we're slightly overperforming.

More notable are the numbers themselves: Liverpool are on a crazy 1.05/90, Tottenham on 0.73, Man City 0.73.

Meanwhile the teams behind us are clustered pretty closely – we're actually closer to Manchester United's 0.02 positive xG per game than we are to Liverpool. So while it's been a great start to the season, it's understandable why most pundits are reluctant to put us in the title race with the Reds – not yet, anyway.

Chelsea have their work cut out to catch impressive Red defence

Still, we should be getting better and better as the season progresses, and if anything we expect our numbers to improve as we tighten up at the back. While our xG is only a sliver behind Arne Slot's team, it's the xG against where we're letting ourselves down – we've given away 16.2 goals worth of chances this season, while the table topping Reds have allowed a ridiculously low 10.6.

Get the back line sorted – and find a way to stop Robert Sanchez getting us into trouble – and the numbers will look even better.