Clock Ticking Down for Dyche as Everton Takeover Draws Closer

Today at 09:09 AM

The pressure is on the Blues boss to turn things around on the pitch, before events off it overtake him

Out of Ideas

Following a third consecutive goalless outing in Everton's stalemate with Brentford at the weekend, questions need to be asked about the manager and his coaching staff. The team has scored just ten times - joint 18th in the division (tied with Crystal Palace) and ahead of only bottom of the table Southampton - in 12 outings. Considering the Blues have had starting striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin available for every match so far and upgraded the attack with the additions of Iliman Ndiaye and Jesper Lindstrom during the summer, is Sean Dyche getting enough from his players?

Everton's xG (Expected Goals) statistic on the campaign is a weak 13.1 (17th ranked), so the team is underperforming its underlying paltry metrics by 3.1, which is quite concerning given this is a pattern we've seen before. Last term, the Blues only scored 40 goals, compared to an xG of 54.0 — a staggering shortfall; a season prior, the numbers were 34 and 45.2, respectively, so this is a long-standing issue, which has existed across the close to two years Dyche has been in post, in addition to the final half season of Frank Lampard's tenure.

On Saturday, the hosts started the game as I'd hoped they would, pressing high and playing with a quick tempo, putting the Bees under early pressure which resulted in several chances, the best of which being a long-range Idrissa Gueye shot which was deflected by Calvert-Lewin, forcing a decent save from Mark Flekken. After ten minutes, however, the pace of the game ebbed and Everton already looked short of both ideas and conviction. The 13 efforts they'd accrued on Brentford's goal in the first half totalled a mere 0.43 xG with no individual chance rated at more than 0.07.

The visitors had actually looked the more dangerous side, despite only managing six efforts. Two of their chances were rated at 0.39 and 0.42 xG — each almost equal to the entirety of Everton's offensive production in the opening period. Christian Nørgaard's dismissal in the 41st minute calmed nerves somewhat and heavily slanted the game in the home side's favour.

Would they be able to capitalize? In short, no. The Toffees dominated possession (earning an unheard-of 72% share in the second half), but if anything, this served to reveal - for all to see - the lack of imagination and structure to their play, which plagues them in the final third.

A glance at the statistics for the final 45 minutes might create the impression of an Everton side pushing hard for a winner, but held off by resolute defending from the Bees, but watching the game presented an entirely different picture. The Blues were slow, ponderous, predictable and aimless in their play, when they needed to pass with pace, use movement to pull the opposition out of position and to get in behind, in order to flash balls across the face of goal, or to pull them back towards the penalty spot for players to attack. We saw none of that and this is a worry.

Manager or Players?

Everton's offensive impotence against Brentford begs the question: is this on the manager, or are the players not good enough? Those fans who are sick of Dyche, either because of the prosaic style of play, a lack of victories over the past eleven months — which now stands at just seven from 32 in the league (against 14 defeats), or even the way he handles himself in press conferences, would choose the former reason. Others, who are understandably concerned with the idea of another managerial change, especially as the ex-Burnley man performed ably to stave off relegation fears in both the 2022/23 campaign and last season, prefer the latter explanation.

So who is correct in their assessment of the team's ongoing attacking woes— or is it a combination of the two factors? The truth, as is often the case, is not black and white, but lies somewhere in between. The club has been shedding attacking talent for a number of years, due to its well-known financial ills. Between 2021 and 2023, the club saw the likes of James Rodríguez, Lucas Digne, Richarlison, Anthony Gordon and Alex Iwobi depart — all of whom had offered goal threat, creative ability, or both, although in Gordon's case this had been potential, rather than delivery at that stage of his career.

Of the various attacking players to arrive during that same period (Demarai Gray, Dele Alli, Andros Townsend, Salomón Rondón, Donny van de Beek, Anwar El Ghazi, Neal Maupay, Arnaut Danjuma, Beto, Jack Harrison and Dwight McNeil), only the former Burnley winger has been an unqualified success — in terms of an ability to effect the game in the final third. It's fair to say that during Dyche's initial 18 months in the job, his options in attack were severely limited and it's likely that most of those acquisitions listed above which overlap his time, were seen as quick (potential) fixes, rather than borne out of any long-term planning.

During the summer, the club focused its resources on improving the manager's attacking options, bringing back Harrison, in addition to Ndiaye and Lindstrom. How have the three performed at Everton, compared to their previous clubs, as measured by their combined npxG + xAG (non-penalty Expected Goals, plus Expected Assisted Goals) per 90?

Surprisingly, Harrison's total this term (0.39) matches his best figure at Leeds United, in the Premier League. Lindstrom's 0.42 score is down on his level at Eintracht Frankfurt (0.62 and 0.47), though not disastrously so. Ndiaye is at a paltry 0.17, far lower than what he attained at Sheffield United (0.47, 0.48) in the Championship, but also at Marseille in Ligue 1 (0.39) — odd, considering that he's been one of the highlights of the campaign to date.

In terms of actual end product - combined goals and assists - Harrison and Lindstrom have produced none, whereas Ndiaye has two. In fact, the Senegalese and McNeil are the only players in the Blues squad exceeding their xG scores. The problem appears to lie in the fact that Everton aren't creating enough quality chances and are inefficient in taking them — in the striker position. The club's attacking midfielders and wingers have missed only three so-called "big chances" combined, whereas Calvert-Lewin has failed to take seven and Beto two. Both underperformed their npxG last season and are doing so again this term, though historically this has not been the norm with either.

This appears to support the theory that it is the team's style of play which is acting as an impediment to scoring goals, rather than any deficiency in the players themselves. There is a structural problem inherent in Dyche's approach which fails to generate sufficient numbers of credible opportunities and those which are created, are technically more difficult to take.

It's notable that the two attackers who are so far bucking the trend are McNeil and Ndiaye — one a clean striker of the ball from range and the other something of a maverick, individual talent. Those relying more on team play to provide solid chances are struggling and will almost certainly continue to do so under the current manager.

A Left Field Solution

The Toffees hierarchy paid little attention to the team's fullback areas during the summer, preferring to focus instead on midfield and the attack, with the strange outlier of centre half Jake O'Brien, who has so far accumulated just 27 minutes of league action. It appears this was a deliberate gamble, in a transfer window in which much was needed; in reality, beyond the club's capacity to fix in one go. Both positions have just about held together, largely thanks to the efforts of Ashley Young, who's filled in at both spots. The 39-year-old was brought in to support Vitalii Mykolenko, on the left, though has found himself playing more on the right.

The Ukrainian left back has so far managed to dispel concerns over the injury problems which he encountered towards the end of last season and which continued into the summer, starting ten of 12 league matches. His form, however, has been concerning. One of the team's better performers last term, he's proven slow to get going this time around, looking defensively shaky and continuing to offer little quality in attack. The club failed in a late effort to bring in veteran defender Ricardo Rodriguez towards the end of the summer, but should they be looking for someone to challenge Mykolenko in the January transfer window?

One potential target could be Tottenham Hotspur left back Sergio Reguilón. Frozen out at the North London club, the Spaniard has played no minutes this season and has been selected for the bench just once, in an EFL Cup tie in September. The player's position under Ange Postecoglou is untenable and the 27-year-old is desperate for a move, in order to reignite his career, with latest reports indicating that he may be seeking a mutual termination of his contract at Spurs, which is set to expire in June. Clubs in Spain have been linked with the former international, but should Everton try for him?

The Real Madrid academy graduate excelled on loan at Sevilla, leading to his move to Spurs in 2020 and he was a regular starter at the club for two seasons. In 2022 he was sent on loan to Atlético Madrid, but his time there was dogged by injury. Reguilón started the 2023/24 campaign at Manchester United, but struggled for consistent game time under Erik ten Hag and at the end of January the loan was cancelled, with him moving to Brentford for the remainder of the season. In West London, the defender impressed, making 16 appearances and starting 13, including each of their last seven games. He provided four assists for the Bees — in stark comparison with Mykolenko, who has none in 85 league outings for the Toffees.

It would have been expected that Thomas Frank would have sought to bring him in permanently during the summer, given his impact, but it's possible his wages were out of their reach (there are conflicting reports of his salary - either £53,000, according to Capology.com, or £120,000 via various media reports — though the latter figure seems high), or the player himself wasn't keen on the move. Regardless, his salary demands are likely to be affordable for Everton. So, how does Reguilón compare with Mykolenko? Presented below is a rundown of the two players' statistics:

As can be seen, Reguilón's attacking and in-possession numbers blow Mykolenko's out of the water, but even defensively he seems to be generally superior. Available either on a free - should his contract with Spurs be terminated - or for a low fee, the player represents the potential for an affordable, significant upgrade for Everton's left-side attack and one which the club should be taking serious interest in.

Statistics provided courtesy of fbref.com, sofascore.com and fotmob.com