Everton at Bournemouth: Opposition Analysis | Blues Look For Revenge After Goodison Humiliation

01/04/2025 02:50 AM

The Toffees have a grim record at the Vitality Stadium

Everton royally squandered the merest hint of momentum last weekend, in being handily beaten on home turf by Nottingham Forest. Watching the high-flying East Midlanders run out comfortable winners at Goodison Park - a result which saw Nuno Espírito Santo's men climb to second, ahead of Arsenal's midweek win - was even more galling, given that the Blues finished last season in a higher league position.

Forest have famously signed a lot of players since their return to the top flight two-and-a-half years ago and accordingly, some have proven to be good acquisitions, but the gulf in effectiveness between them and the Toffees should not be as big as it was shown to be on Sunday. Sure, the visitors have more depth and their first eleven is a little better overall, but the biggest gap appears to be in coaching and tactical aptitude.

That has to be a worry as Everton now enter the first week of the winter Transfer Window —and a month packed full of difficult fixtures. The team plays three clubs currently lying between ninth and eleventh in the table, but first up is a Saturday visit to seventh-placed Bournemouth.

Form

The relatively unknown Andoni Iraola was headhunted by the Cherries to take over from the outgoing Gary O'Neil before the start of last season and after a terrible start - in which he failed to win any of his opening nine league matches, losing six - the Basque found his feet, eventually guiding the club to finish 12th. The 42-year-old had been heavily backed upon arriving (a net €126m) and the South Coast outfit spent solidly again in the summer, with an outlay of €106m mitigated by the sale of star striker Dominic Solanke to Tottenham Hotspur, for a €64.3m fee.

There were no other major departures, the task of replacing Solanke's 19 league goals falling primarily to new recruit, Evanilson, signed for €37m from Porto. Eight additional players arrived ahead of the new campaign, those having most impact so far being Chelsea loanee goalkeeper, Kepa Arrizabalaga (signed by the London club for an eye-watering €80m in 2018), giant teenage centre half Dean Huijsen (€15.2m, Juventus) and Barcelona full back Julián Araujo (€10m), who is currently sidelined through injury.

Bournemouth started the campaign with a pair of draws against tough opposition, in Forest and Newcastle United, before that stunning come from behind 3-2 victory over Everton at Goodison, a result that dismayed Blues fans. Consecutive losses (to Chelsea and Liverpool) followed, before a win and a loss, respectively, against promoted sides Southampton and Leicester City. The Cherries then picked up a couple of impressive victories, over Arsenal and Manchester City and an away draw with Aston Villa.

Defeats by Brentford and Brighton followed, but since the team has hit a sustained patch of form, being unbeaten in seven. They've registered strong wins over Tottenham and Manchester United (3-0), but have been held in their last two outings, the last being a 2-2 draw with Fulham at Craven Cottage on Sunday, in which the Cherries twice rallied to draw level.

Style of Play

Iraola has caught the eye since his arrival in England a little over 18 months ago, with his energetic, attacking approach to the game. His side presses in a highly coordinated fashion from out of a 4-2-3-1 formation, and is adept at smothering the opposition and forcing high turnovers. The Basque's fullbacks are tasked with providing width, with his wingers coming inside to take shots and also to throw off marking schemes. When they get into a rhythm, Bournemouth are adept are moving the ball quickly and using a lot of movement to confuse defences. With their defensive line pushed up high and competent in possession, it can be difficult to break their control.

The Spaniard's system is very demanding on the fitness of his players and also requires a high degree of footballing intelligence to pull off. It's an attacking, progressive, modern style, which creates plenty of chances — 16.5 per 90 minutes (ranking second in the division) and an xG (Expected Goals) of 37.4, but they aren't capitalising on those metrics, having netted 29 times; that's still a good haul, but they should be doing even better. They've been particularly effective in scoring from set-pieces (joint third) and converting penalties (top ranked).

Bournemouth are not a ball-control side, with their share of possession at 45.4% — ranking only 16th in the division. Their pass completion percentage of 79.2 also only ranks them 17th and with 13.9% of their passing going long, they aren't afraid to mix it up. The hosts heavily favour attacking down their left side. Defensively, they are solid, having conceded 23 times — in line with an xGA (Expected Goals Allowed) metric of 23.6. They've been slightly susceptible to conceding from set-pieces (ranked joint 15th), but not from counterattacks (joint top). They only permit 11.2 shots on goal per 90 (joint sixth).

Player Assessment

The much-maligned Kepa has been a standout performer for the Cherries since arriving from Chelsea. The 29-year-old was horrible in the 2019/20 campaign, but actually played well in his last season at the London club and again on loan at Real Madrid last term. He's continued that form at Bournemouth and has stopped 2.2 goals that the data would expect him to concede. His save percentage of 74.3 puts him in the 80th percentile amongst goalkeepers operating in top leagues.

Antoine Semenyo will be a major threat for the hosts today. The right winger attempts far more shots than any of his teammates (4.25 per 90) and has scored five league goals this term. He's a strong runner, attempting 4.43 dribbles (with a 53.2% success rate) and carrying the ball into the opposition area 2.18 times per 90. The Ghanaian works hard out of possession also, blocking 1.72 passes per game.

At the heart of defence, the teenage Huijsen has proven a great signing. The Spanish centre half is winning 58.7% of his aerial duels, leads the team with 5.91 clearances and contributes 3.64 combined tackles and interceptions per 90.

Solution

Although Bournemouth are not a possession side, it's near certain that they'll dominate the ball at home against Sean Dyche's football-averse Everton side. The Blues were stunningly ineffective when commanding possession against Forest, so it's unlikely we'll see a repeat of that anytime soon. The visitors will set up in a mid-low block and look to press the home side in the middle third of the pitch. This may reap dividends, if their pressing is active enough, but as soon as the Cherries become comfortable, it could prove difficult to disrupt their pass and move game.

Dyche may be best served by starting fast and with aggression, in an attempt to unsettle Bournemouth and hopefully to either score an early goal, or at least to win corners, or deep free kicks, where Everton can try to outmuscle the hosts. If the Blues sit back passively and invite the opposition on, then this could end up a tough watch and it's difficult to envisage them scoring in such a scenario. Unless the wild card that is progressive right back Nathan Patterson is selected to start - which won't happen - then it doesn't really matter who lines up for the Toffees, in all honesty.

Everton's year-long lack of goals have been highlighted in the media over the past week, embarrassingly, but it's not at all clear how the club will go about changing that narrative, under the present regime. Dyche's teams just aren't set up to create lots of chances — or high-quality ones. With none of the current attackers being elite performers, the scarcity of opportunities just ramps up the individual and collective pressure to convert, which is almost certain to have a negative impact.

I just don't see things changing on the pitch, Dyche being what he is and it's folly to expect anything different from him at this stage of his career. He's been at Everton now for almost two years and the formula should be clear to all by now: a narrow defensive shape, with plenty of bodies back at all times and limited commitment to the counterattack. Such a philosophy will probably limit the number of goals conceded, but will also produce a low-output attack. The plan should produce plenty of stodgy games decided by small margins, with the expectation that the cards will fall in Everton's favour just enough.

The Toffees could win, but it's not too likely. More probably, they may frustrate Bournemouth, ride out rough patches and rely on a few key blocks, or saves and secure what would be seen as a very solid point. The Cherries are missing a number of players, so may be more vulnerable than might be expected. However, the likeliest result at the Vitality - where Everton have a horrendous record, never having won there in a league meeting and having lost on their last four visits, by a combined scoreline of 12-3 - is a comfortable victory for Iraola's side.

Prediction: Bournemouth 1-0 Everton

Statistics provided courtesy of fbref.com, transfermarkt.com and whoscored.com