Everton at Brighton: Opposition Analysis | Nothing to Fear, Everything To Play For

01/25/2025 08:33 AM

Despite the hype surrounding the Seagulls, the Blues are unbeaten at the Amex in their last four visits

The David Moyes 2.0 era achieved liftoff last weekend, with the team's exciting 3-2 home victory over Tottenham Hotspur. There'd been a last-minute abortive launch during the previous game, in which Everton had shown some positive signs of improvement under their new (old) boss, but fallen short at Goodison Park, losing to Aston Villa. However, there was nothing wrong with the team's booster rockets last time out.

The admittedly depleted visitors were blown away by the Blues, in the kind of first half performance rarely seen at the Old Lady in recent years. The great old stadium's final season was treated to a game worthy of its history and reputation, and hopefully there will be at least a couple much such days to come before it reaches the end.

It's a change of scenery for the Toffees today, however, as they make the long trip south to the Amex, where they'll take on ninth-placed Brighton & Hove Albion.

Form

The Seagulls found their first-ever foray into European football demanding last term, ending up finishing eleventh — dropping 14 points from their previous campaign. The team's depth was sorely put to the test by a push to the last 16 of the Europa League and it was found a little wanting. Ambitious manager Roberto De Zerbi had cut an unhappy figure during the second half of the season and departed for pastures new in the summer, to be replaced by the shockingly-young (to me, anyway) Fabian Hürzeler. If Brighton had banked significant funds during the previous campaign, with sales of major players, then they blew it like a Vegas high roller last summer, with a net transfer spend of more than €190m.

Of the newcomers, fullback Ferdi Kadıoğlu (€30m, Fenerbahce) made the most early impact, before suffering a toe injury which will keep him out of today's match. Another major signing, midfielder Mats Wieffer (€32m, Feyenoord) also misses out. Winger Brajan Gruda (€31.5m, Mainz 05) has passed a fitness test, though fellow recruit, midfielder Matt O'Riley (€29.5m, Celtic) is a doubt. Two others - striker Georginio Rutter (€46.7m) and former Blues target Yankuba Minteh (€35m, Newcastle United) - have been used mostly from the bench, though both scored last weekend.

The new boss got off to a great start in England, losing just one of his opening nine Premier League fixtures, after blowing away the Toffees 3-0 at Goodison to kick off the campaign. The young German picked up some notable scalps, beating Manchester United, Spurs and the Magpies during this impressive run, with the lone loss coming to Chelsea, at Stamford Bridge. A creditable away defeat to Liverpool followed, but the Seagulls rebounded with back-to-back victories over Manchester City and Bournemouth, before they entered a slump: eight games without a win — albeit with only two defeats.

The South Coast outfit has found its form of late, however, taking maximum points from the last two outings. A routine 2-0 win over Ipswich Town was followed up with a clinical dispatching of a woeful United side, 3-1 at Old Trafford, last weekend.

Style of Play

Hürzeler is quite flexible in the manner in which he sets up, though he almost always works from out of a basic back four framework. The young American-born coach has his own ideas as to how he wants to play, but he's also in the formative stages of what figures to be a long managerial career and is happy to adapt. He's varied the formation throughout the campaign, starting off with a 4-2-3-1, moving to a 4-4-2 and back again, and for the last two games - both victories - he's used a 4-1-4-1 and 4-4-2, respectively. It should be noted that both of those matches were on the road, however and Brighton have deployed the 4-2-3-1 in each of their last three at the Amex.

One of the German's core concepts is a desire to play through the opposition press. He'll instruct players to move to facilitate this, with fullbacks inverting on occasion and midfielders and even forwards dropping back in order to create overloads, in order to create passing opportunities. This is clearly drilled in training and accordingly Brighton are one of the most press-resistant teams in the league.

What they are not, however is a possession side: they command a 52.3% share of the ball (eighth ranked), way down from 60.2% under De Zerbi. Their pass completion percentage is also down — 85.3%, compared to 89% last term. Most of their passing is short (only 8.8% long), but they will go direct when required, particularly on the road. They are well-balanced in attack, but favour the left.

Brighton have scored 35 times this season, considerably exceeding their xG statistic of 30.7. They take 14.1 shots per 90 minutes (ranking joint sixth), but they lead the division in attempts from central areas (74%), which may explain their overperformance. Nothing stands out as a particular focus, when it comes to the situations they are scoring from: not set-pieces, general play, or counterattacks.

Defensively, the Seagulls only permit 11.6 shots per 90 (ranking seventh). They rank highly on the number of crosses blocked and fouls committed, which is characteristic of a pressing team. They've conceded 30 times, slightly better than their xGA of 32.2 and defend set-plays well, but have been caught on the counter four times.

Player Assessment

Kaoru Mitoma is one of the hosts' main threats. He's enjoying a return to form after an injury-blighted prior campaign and has eight goal contributions this term from his left wing berth. He bagged a goal and an assist against United last week and will need to be watched carefully. The Japan international is adept at carrying the ball into the penalty area (2.21 times per 90) and dribbling (4.46 attempts, with a 42.5% success rate) and is ahead of all regulars in the side with 3.59 SCA (Shot-Creating Actions) per 90.

With normal incumbent Gruda a doubt, Minteh - who scored a goal and provided an assist in a rare start last weekend - may retain his place on the right flank. The pacy Gambian is a danger with the ball at his feet. He's attempted 5.8 dribbles per game (42.6% success rate) and carries the ball into the opposition area a team-high 3.58 times per 90.

Carlos Baleba will partner fellow 21-year-old Yasin Ayari in midfield. The Colombian leads the team in combined tackles and interceptions (4.65) and ball recoveries (6.79) per 90. An intelligent player whose pass completion percentage of 87.9 leads all non-defenders at Brighton, Baleba is yet another fantastic midfield find by Brighton's recruitment people and already worth considerably more than the €27m the club paid for him less than 18 months ago.

Solution

Although Brighton are considered by many to be a major success story in recent years - which they are - and Everton a basket-case over the same period (also true), it's worth noting that the Toffees haven't actually lost any of their last four visits to the Amex. In fact, we have to go all the way back to October 2019, when Graham Potter was Seagulls boss and Marco Silva in the away dugout for that last victory by the home side: 3-2, courtesy of a Lucas Digne own goal in the 94th minute, so the idea that the Blues are right up against it here is not supported by history. The Merseysiders can travel down to the South Coast with every expectation of being able to get a positive result.

In terms of form, both have recently emerged from a winless slump. Everton will be on a high coming off the win against Spurs and it's apparent that the mood around the playing squad has received a major lift following Moyes' arrival. What the boss will do in terms of selection and formation is hard to gauge. It's highly tempting to stick with what worked last time out and I expect to see an unchanged lineup, with the team perhaps adopting more of a back three shape than was evident against the Londoners. If the Blues enjoy any tactical advantages over their opponents, then unpredictability is surely one.

Brighton will look to invite the press, as we saw on opening day at Goodison, where an aggressive home side caused numerous turnovers, but were frustratingly unable to caplitalise. If the visitors can show the same energy and determination which was evident last weekend, then they can cause the hosts problems. Of course, that may be playing into Brighton's hands. However, I don't see Everton sitting off in a passive, defensive shell, as would have been the case under Sean Dyche. The team will allow the hosts to play out, in my opinion, but look to pressure them as they enter the middle third, maintaining a compact defensive shape, but crucially the potential for rapid counterattacks.

It's to be noted that the Seagulls have failed to win any of their last four home games, being held by Southampton, Brentford and Arsenal — and beaten by Crystal Palace. In that setback, the South Londoners set up in a 3-4-3 shape and limited the home side to low-percentage efforts. More than half of Brighton's shots were blocked and they only scored via a Marc Guehi own goal, late on.

Are Palace that much better than Everton? Could this gameplan be replicated today? I believe it can and that Moyes and his staff will have paid particular focus to that result during their match preparation. It's still early days under the new man, so I think a win is possible, but unlikely; however I do believe that the Toffees can take something here.

Prediction: Brighton 1-1 Everton

Statistics provided courtesy of transfermarkt.com, fbref.com and whoscored.com