Everton at Ipswich: Opposition Analysis | Stalemate Awaits

Today at 08:33 AM

In what figures to present a sharp contrast in styles of football, the Blues should take a point

Coming back from yet another international break, Everton find themselves on an unbeaten run of three in the league —albeit with just one victory under their belt. Despite a poor start to the campaign, the Blues sit 16th in the Premier League table, two points clear of the drop-zone, but with a run of relatively easy fixtures ahead, there's an opportunity to pile up some decent results, before entering what looks to be a daunting December.

Last time out, the Toffees ground out a solid - if drab - goalless draw at Goodison Park, against Newcastle United. This afternoon, they travel to Portman Road, to face promoted outfit Ipswich Town.

Form

The Suffolk club returned to the top flight this season, after a 22-year break, during which they'd recently spent four campaigns in the third tier — the lowest level they'd played at since 1954. With the shrewd appointment of young manager Kieran McKenna in December 2021, their fortunes have turned around dramatically. Escaping from League One in his first full season in charge, the Northern Irishman achieved the rare feat of back-to-back promotions last term, finishing in second spot in the Championship, a point behind champions Leicester City.

In preparation for what figured to be the arduous challenge of staying in the Premier League, Ipswich spent heavily during the summer — a net €125m. A dozen new additions arrived to strengthen the squad. Those seeing the most game time to date are Chelsea winger Omari Hutchinson (€23.5m), Hull City defender Jacob Greaves (€21.5m), Manchester City academy graduate Liam Delap (€17.9m), Sunderland winger Jack Clarke (€17.7m), Burnley centre half Dara O'Shea (€14.2m), Blackburn Rovers attacker Sammie Szmodics (€10.6m), Clarets goalkeeper Arijanet Muric (€9.6m) and on-loan City midfielder Kalvin Phillips.

The new signings have dominated the team's playing time, augmented by a few mainstays from Ipswich's rapid ascent through the divisions. The Tractor Boys won 28 and lost just six times last term, in amassing 96 points and scoring 92 goals, but despite doing their best to prepare for the step up in quality in the Premier League, they've found it tough going so far. They welcomed Liverpool to Portman Road to kick off the campaign, but despite holding out for an hour, succumbed 2-0. Ipswich shockingly took an early lead against City at the Etihad next time out, before reality asserted itself, resulting in a 4-1 defeat.

Following on from what was unquestionably an extremely tough introduction to the elite level of the English game, the Suffolk side showed signs of coping, in drawing each of their next four - at home against Fulhamand Aston Villa, and away at Brighton and Southampton. If the latter result was slightly disappointing - considering how out of their depth the saints are looking - then the Villa result was highly encouraging: a game in which the promoted side had the better of a Champions League participant. If that was a high point, then last time out was the nadir — a crushing 4-1 loss in a visit to West Ham United.

Today's hosts sit in 17th position on four points, awaiting their first win of the campaign.

Style of Play

The 38-year-old McKenna is currently regarded as one of the most promising young head coaches operating in England, based off his achievements to date. Forced to quit football due to injury at just 22, he attended University and then embarked on a career in coaching, learning his trade in the youth setups at both Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United before moving into a senior coaching position at the latter. So, despite his relatively tender years, he has a fair amount of varied experience under his belt and has gained a strong understanding of the game and its principles.

The Northern Irishman is wedded to the 4-2-3-1 system and favours an aggressive, possession-heavy approach. The team only rank 18th in terms of share of the ball, however - on 39.8% - though this has been skewed by outings against heavy ball-control teams in Liverpool, City and Brighton. Against Sean Dyche's bottom-ranked Blues, they should command the lion's share of possession. McKenna wants his side to play a short-passing game, through two midfield pivots — very much the current school of thought in football circles. In many ways, he and today's opponent are the polar opposites.

Ipswich play expansively and with a lot of movement, looking to throw off marking and pressing schemes and to open up passing lanes. Width is provided by an overlapping fullback - Leif Davis on the left - with the winger in front, typically Clarke, cutting inside. The hosts' passing completion percentage of 82.3 ranks a solid 13th , with 11.1% of their passes going long. They manage only 8.9 attempts on goal per 90 minutes (19th) and have scored six times, which is slightly ahead of their 5.0 xG (Expected Goals) statistic. Of those six strikes, three have been from counter-attacking situations.

The Suffolk outfit are permitting 14.7 efforts on their net per 90, but have conceded an alarming 14 times — which is still less than their xGA (Expected Goals Allowed) of 15.4. Even with allowances made for what has been a hard run of games to start the campaign, they'll need to tighten things up at the back in order to prolong their stay in the top flight beyond a single season. All but one of those goals (a penalty) they've shipped have been from open play, so structurally this is something a talented tactician like McKenna should be able to correct — assuming the players he's working with are up to the challenge.

Player Assessment

A bugbear of many a promoted side is an inability to threaten in the attacking third of the pitch, but in Delap the early signs are that Ipswich may be better equipped than most. The former Man City academy man has four league goals already and his overall play suggests that the 21-year-old could be a gamble that's paid off. He bagged 26 goals last season on loan at Hull City in the second-tier, but unlike many who've hit similar numbers at that level, he looks to have a strong combination of strength, quickness and intelligence. So far, he's been clinical in front of goal, hitting the target with 63.6% of his efforts.

Davis will offer a significant overlapping threat down the left, in addition to being the team's primary corner kick taker. His 4.00 SCA (Shot-Creating Actions) per 90 lead the club and are evenly split from dead ball and open-play situations.

The much-maligned Phillips is contributing effectively on defence. He's making a combined 4.55 tackles and interceptions, blocking 2.12 passes and leads the hosts with 6.36 ball recoveries per 90.

Wingers Hutchinson and Clarke offer significant threats. On the right, the former is attempting 4.56 dribbles per 90, with a success rate of 58.1%. He's leading the team in carries into the opposition area (0.88). The latter - who managed 41 goal contributions in 87 Championship appearances with the Black Cats - heavily favours cutting in on his right foot and also carries the ball well. He's trying 5.00 dribbles per match, with a 53.8% success rate.

Solution

There has been no sign of Ipswich losing confidence in their methods, or looking completely out of their depth as yet, though the step up from the second tier is a steep one — and with all the signs of the gulf widening over time. The long-suffering home crowd are enjoying watching their team back in the Premier League and will be certain to back them heartily this afternoon. McKenna knows how he wants his side to play, but is not dogmatic and will be sure to have been making some adjustments during the international break.

I expect the Tractor Boys to dominate the ball and to attempt to control the flow of the game and it'll be up to Everton to try to disrupt that. Their left side could prove troublesome for the visitors, with Clarke drifting inside and Davis in on the overlap. This will cause problems if the Everton midfield fail to pick up runners and could challenge what figures to be a fairly immobile visiting back four.

That defence figures to be again missing Jarrad Branthwaite and going off Dyche's answers in the press conference on Thursday, it's to be expected that Michael Keane will again be favoured over summer signing Jake O'Brien. Nathan Patterson appears to be no closer to a start still, despite having played two games for the Under-21s recently, so Ashley Young will be switched to right back, with James Garner also injured. Thankfully, Vitalii Mykolenko returns, but will need to improve after a slow start to the campaign.

Otherwise, there's unlikely to be any sweeping changes. Jack Harrison will be trusted on the right, Dwight McNeil in central attack and Iliman Ndiaye on the left — where Dyche mysteriously favours using him. The midfield should see Orel Mangala retain his place, though I can see Idrissa Gueye potentially swapping in for Abdoulaye Doucoure. If Everton are too passive, then they'll be reliant once more on Ndiaye to carry the ball up the pitch, in lieu of much pace elsewhere in attack.

Dyche will be wary of Ipswich's threat in transition — something Everton have proven susceptible to in recent years. Without Branthwaite's covering speed in the back four, it's going to be difficult for the visitors to push up, which would be required should they intend to press the hosts aggressively. I can see the Toffees sitting rather deeper than I like to see and inviting the Suffolk side on. Both sides have the ability to do damage against defences that have proven less than watertight.

I feel Dyche will set the team up negatively, looking to frustrate and extending the current unbeaten run to four. Whether that will see Everton manage an increasingly rare away victory is doubtful, but the Merseysiders must not gift another promoted side a win — something which has become sadly commonplace in recent years.

Prediction: Ipswich 1-1 Everton

Statistics supplied courtesy of transfermarkt.com, fbref.com and whoscored.com