Everton vs Brentford: Opposition Analysis | Time to Play With Authority

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The Blues need to start making home advantage count for something

Fresh from another break to the Premier League schedule, due to international fixtures, Everton returns to action at the weekend. The Blues recent record can be assessed in multiple ways. An optimist could say that the team have lost just one league game from seven, whereas a pessimist could argue that they are winless in three.

Regardless, few could argue that the Toffees are behind where they should be after eleven games, having accrued just ten points from a schedule which has been appraised — by analytics company OPTA, as being the easiest in the division. Sean Dyche has been bullish in his assertion that the team has been playing well recently, whilst admitting that his players have not been effective in converting chances.

Last time out the Merseysiders earned a creditable away draw against West Ham United, in a game they could have won, but in the end came close to losing. The Hammers looked a team devoid of confidence, playing in front of a quiet, discontented crowd at the London Stadium and Everton started both halves in good form. But they were unable to take advantage and had to rely on a couple of strong saves from Jordan Pickford late on, in order to escape with a point.

With a daunting list of fixtures stretching ahead until the end of January, the Blues entertain Brentford this afternoon, at Goodison Park.

Form

The Bees endured a rough time last season, ending up in 16th place — their worst finish in three Premier League campaigns. They were a streaky side, earning just a point from their opening five matches, winning eight of their next twelve, before hitting a terrible run of results, which saw them pick up only a single victory in 13 matches, which included seven losses. They ended the campaign in strong form, gaining five victories from their remaining eight games, but overall it was a letdown after they'd registered a shock ninth-place finish the year before.

In preparation for an improved effort this term, Brentford's hierarchy spent almost €98m on new signings, balanced by recouping €74.5m in outgoings. Leaving was Ivan Toney, to the Saudi Pro League for a princely €42m. The other major loss was goalkeeper David Raya, who made his loan move to Arsenal permanent for €31.9m. Both players had been key men for the Bees during the 2022/23 season, but the Spaniard had not been at the club last term and former star striker Toney had missed half the campaign due to a suspension for gambling offences.

Big summer signing Igor Thiago (€33m, Club Brugge) - the replacement for Toney at centre forward - suffered a bad knee injury in July, though could be available finally for today's match. Left winger Gustavo Nunes (€12m, Gremio) has likewise been injured since the summer. Attacking midfielder Fabio Carvalho was signed from Liverpool for €23.4m, but has so far been used mostly from the bench, though he's started in the EFL Cup. The only impactful new addition has been another former Red in Dutch defender Sepp van den Berg (€23.6m).

Unlike last season, the Bees have not been streaky this time around. Instead, they've alternated excellent form at home, with poor results on the road — though the quality of opposition has undoubtedly figured into this. They've lost all five away games, though these defeats have been inflicted by Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur and Fulham. At the Gtech, they've won five of six, with only West Ham holding them to a draw. Last time out, today's visitors came from behind twice to defeat AFC Bournemouth 3-2.

They arrive at Goodison sitting in eleventh spot in the table, six points ahead of the Blues.

Style of Play

Thomas Frank has shifted formation frequently so far this season, using a 4-3-3, 4-4-2 and 5-3-2, before favouring a 4-2-3-1 in recent games. The Dane is an imaginative tactician, who is more than capable of making necessary adjustments during a match. He is a fairly pragmatic operator, who is not too wedded to any one particular approach. Brentford are a well-organized and disciplined outfit, able to adapt to the opposition, but who basically employ a solid lowish block and like to play with good tempo, whether along the ground or through direct balls.

This season the Bees are managing a 47.0% share of possession (ranking 13th in the division) and a pass completion percentage of 80.8 (14th). By contrast, the Blues place dead last in both categories. The West Londoners go long with 12.4% of their passes, which suggests a balanced approach and marginally favour attacking down their right. They are not a side which puts in a lot of crosses.

Brentford produce only 11.2 efforts on the opposition net per 90 minutes (16th), yet generate an xG (Expected Goals) statistic of 18.2, which ranks sixth, indicating that they are creating higher-quality chances. They've scored 22, which is an impressive overachievement. Most of their goals have come from open play, although they have scored four from set-piece situations and converted two penalties.

Defensively, they give up plenty of chances: 18.5 per 90, the most in the division. Their xGA (Expected Goals Allowed) statistic of 19.3 is higher than all but the three promoted clubs, along with Wolverhampton Wanderers. Today's visitors have conceded 22 times this term (ranking joint 18th) — two goals per game, which is a sizeable underperformance of the underlying metrics. The Bees have only conceded once from a dead-ball situation, though have shipped three on the counter.

Player Assessment

Yoane Wissa has been playing primarily through the middle this season and has continued his strong form from last term. The 28-year old is mobile, strong and a clinical finisher, having scored seven goals from only 15 shots, with nine on target.

Operating on the right side of attack, Bryan Mbuemo is both a goal-scoring threat (he leads the team with eight) and a creative force, producing 1.65 key passes per 90. The Frenchman generates 3.75 SCA (Shot-Creating Actions) per game.

Just ahead of Mbeumo, with 3.76 SCA, is Mikkel Damsgaard. Deployed as an attacking midfielder, or on the left, the Dane is enjoying a breakout campaign, after his career appeared to be stalling through injury. A genuine footballing talent, the 24-year-old has started the last nine in the league and has scored once and assisted another four over the last five matches. He's producing 2.05 key passes per 90 and is also leading the team in combined tackles and interceptions, with 4.32 per game.

Solution

Dyche is surprisingly up 3-0 on Frank since arriving at Everton and given Brentford's unimpressive away form, will surely be in confident mood this afternoon. Hopefully, this will transmit to the players and we'll see a more aggressive approach from the home side than has been evident for much of the campaign to date, starting with the starting lineup. The visitors are dangerous and free-scoring, but give up a lot of chances — and goals. For an anaemic Blues attack, this is good news, but matches don't always play out as the statistics imply they should.

I'd love to see the hosts come out with genuine belief, and get on the front foot, putting the visitors under early pressure and giving the action-starved fans something to cheer about. The Blues cannot go into almost every game with an underdog, small club mentality; it just isn't what most of the fan base expects to see from their team on home turf. On the road, it's acceptable given current circumstances, but a negative approach at Goodison kills the team's biggest advantage — its passionate support.

Jarrad Branthwaite will be a late call for the match and it's unlikely he'll be risked if there is any doubt about his fitness, so I'm expecting to see Michael Keane partnering James Tarkowski, in an otherwise unchanged back four. Dwight McNeil looks as though he'll be ready to go, so Abdoulaye Doucoure will probably drop to the bench, with Iliman Ndiaye continuing in a sub-optimal position on the left, the improving Jesper Lindstrom retaining his place on the right and Dominic Calvert-Lewin as the lone front man.

There's not much to separate the two teams, in terms of ability, so Everton's home advantage could prove to be crucial. Obviously, Brentford aren't going to continue losing every road game though, which sets up Blues fans to half expect the team to play the fall guy in this scenario, in time-honoured fashion. The visitors are playing with confidence and appear resilient, which isn't something you'd necessarily associate with the Toffees in recent years.

I can't lose the nagging feeling that Dyche will send the team out again with a semi-negative mindset, with the intention of capitalizing on the opposition's mistakes, rather than attempting to impose themselves on an defensively shaky opponent. This may well work, though it relies once more on Everton taking some of the few real chances they'll create — far from a given. Accordingly, I find it tough at the moment to make a convincing case for a Blues win.

Prediction: Everton 1-1 Brentford

Statistics provided courtesy of fbref.com, transfermarkt.com and whoscored.com