Newcastle United and PIF tipped to 'go nuclear' as £300m budget boost mooted - Kieran Maguire

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Since taking over the club in 2021, the Saudi Public Investment Fund have hardly been restrained in terms of their investment in Newcastle United.

Amortisation – that is how clubs account for transfer fees over a period of time – has almost trebled since the Mike Ashley era, while their forecasted wage bill for the last financial year is around the £200m mark.

In terms of their squad cost, which is the combined total of the two elements above, Newcastle will probably have the highest in the Premier League outside the so-called Big Six this season.

But it has been a difficult start to 2024-25 for Eddie Howe and his players, with the Magpies now closer to the bottom three than they are the top six in terms of points.

Howe and sporting director Paul Mitchell would surely love to strengthen in January, but PIF are limited in the funds they can provide by PSR (Profit and Sustainability Rules).

The owners know that they need to raise significantly revenue before they can consistently compete at the top of the table and in Europe, as they have explicitly said is their aim.

At present, broadcast income is by far their biggest earner – but that is centrally negotiated by the Premier League and is largely out of their hands.

They have therefore looked to commercial and matchday income to try and push the envelope.

They have seen major success with commercial income, which – like their squad cost – has more than doubled since the Saudis took over at St James’ Park.

However, the Premier League’s fair market value rules mean that the owners cannot freely use companies in their c.£800bn portfolio to take a quantum leap forward in terms of sponsorship.

Therefore, PIF are looking to supersize the sums they earn through the turnstiles, and that will eventually lead to a major revamp of St James’ Park or the construction of a new stadium altogether.

There have been interesting developments on that front this week.

• READ MORE: CEO gives verdict on Newcastle United owners PIF sealing biggest takeover yet worth £16bn

Newcastle United should build brand new stadium, says finance expert

Last week, Newcastle’s chief operating officer Brad Miller made the astonishing claim that Newcastle could double their revenue at a new stadium.

"The first choice is, if we stayed at St James', we have the 52,000 seats already," he told The Times.

"It comes with significantly more money if we transform it and it will look amazing. That's option one.

"Option two is if we were to move away, and not too far away as we aren't going to stretch the elastic band to the point of breaking.

“The second option, we are looking at it seriously as it does have the potential to earn more than twice as much in terms of revenue, compared to a transformation of St James' Park.

“And more seats, a lot more seats potentially."

Newcastle’s revenue was £250m at the last count. When they release their accounts for 2023-24, a season in which they had Champions League revenue, it is expected to break the £300m barrier.

Could Newcastle really generated £600m in revenue at a new stadium. TBR Football put the question to Liverpool University football finance lecturer and industry insider Kieran Maguire.

“I think their revenue for 2023-24 will be in the region of £280-300m,” the Price of Football author said.

“Would I expect it to double to £600m? I’m not so certain, but it could certainly add a substantial amount.

“I am very much in favour of the nuclear potion and building a new stadium altogether.

“What you want to do is future-proof the stadium for the next 40 to 50 years.

“You aren’t going to do that by taking a Jenga approach to the stadium and taking bits out and replacing them one by one.

“If the owners approve the deal, they will use their own resources.

“They have got the cash to do it. I see no logical reason why they would go through any other route.

• READ MORE: Newcastle United's £20m PSR loophole has now backfired