Champions League group phase final round: What Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, Real Madrid and Girona need

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With the inaugural 36-team Champions League group phase coming to an end, here is the situation each La Liga side finds themselves in before the 18 games kick off simultaneously.

Barcelona – Atalanta (H) – 18 points – 2nd place

Barcelona can likely secure second spot with just a point at home to Atalanta, although La Dea will be a tricky test. A win gives them a slim hope of usurping Liverpool in top spot, should the Reds lose to PSV Eindhoven, but otherwise they are capped in second spot. Atalanta will go strong against Barcelona, with a Round of 16 spot on the line for the 7th place side.

The expected lineups. @mundodeportivo, @diarioaspic.twitter.com/2llgoMykfu

— barcacentre (@barcacentre) January 29, 2025

The important thing is to finish top two though, as that will see them seeded opposite the other top seed in the draw, as the highest seed in that section of the draw. Having already secured a top eight spot, they will go directly into the Round of 16. If Barcelona draw and Arsenal or Inter win, they can leapfrog the Catalans with a significant goal swing, and the same is the case for Atletico Madrid and AC Milan if they lose, but that swing would be 10-11 goals – goal difference is the separating factor.

Atletico Madrid – RB Salzburg (A) – 15 points – 5th place

Atletico Madrid will qualify in the top eight for the Round of 16 with a win, and could finish as high as second, but are likely to be battling it out for seeding. If they were to draw, Atletico would have eight teams behind them that could potentially overtake them, but that does in part hinge on goal difference. There are four spots for the nine teams including Atletico though.

Enrique Cerezo on the RFEF president's comments about Florentino Perez:

"I haven't heard those statements. Nor have I ever heard Florentino say that, so I can't comment. Let Mr. Louzán, who made the statement, give his opinion."

"We are here in Salzburg to talk about an… pic.twitter.com/GL6MZyz938

— Atletico Universe (@atletiuniverse) January 29, 2025

Were Los Colchoneros to suffer a shock defeat to Salzburg, who are 34th and already eliminated, then Atletico would be at greater risk of dropping into the play-off round. The number of teams that could surpass them would increase to 13 teams, although some of them face off against each other. They are guaranteed a play-off spot, but a win would go a long way for Diego Simeone's side.

Real Madrid – Brest (A) – 12 points – 16th place

Real Madrid are the side that have their fate most in the air. They have a 2.9% chance of making the top eight with a win, but would have to better the results of the eight sides ahead of them to squeeze into the Round of 16. Only three points will be enough. As pointed out by Marca, Real Madrid need Lille and Feyenoord to draw, and defeats for Aston Villa and Monaco against Celtic and Inter respectively to have a hope.

A draw will do little for Los Blancos, who are guaranteed a play-off spot. That would likely see them seeded in the bottom half of the play-off round, while a defeat could see them finish as low as 23rd. Up against them are Brest, who are a point ahead of them and have plenty on the line.

Girona – Arsenal (H) – 3 points – 31st place

Sadly for Girona, progress is ruled out after just a single win over Slovan Bratislava. A win over Arsenal could see them move as high as 28th, a defeat would put them at risk of bottoming out the table. A minimum 11-goal swing would need to occur, coupled with Slovan and Young Boys wins in order for that to happen though.

Matchday 8 is here!

Dramatic conclusion incoming #UCLpic.twitter.com/YOFnx8AIi2

— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) January 29, 2025

A point guarantees they will not finish bottom, but it is mostly pride, a €2.1m win bonus, and coefficient points on the line for the Catalans against Mikel Arteta's Arsenal. The Gunners are in third place, and will be motivated to win by seeding places and to guarantee their spot in the Round of 16.

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