Exclusive: How losing Virgil van Dijk and Mohamed Salah could impact Liverpool's January transfer budget
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Liverpool are starting to look ahead to the January transfer window as they plot a Premier League title push.
The Reds have put themselves into a good position so far this season, but supporters will be hoping one or two New Year’s additions could help to push them over the line.
Liverpool have done some good business over January’s past, with the likes of Virgil van Dijk and Philippe Coutinho being added mid-season.
The £75m spent on Van Dijk showed that the Liverpool owners are willing to go big on the right player over the winter.
And as the Reds continue contract negotiations with their captain, as well as Trent Alexander-Arnold and Mohamed Salah, football finance expert Adam Williams has explained how losing – or retaining – any or all of the three players could impact Liverpool’s spending this January.
Liverpool’s January budget explained
Rousing The Kop understands that negotiations with Liverpool’s ‘big three’ are still ongoing, with the Reds remaining hopeful of reaching a resolution.
However, with nothing yet settled, there still remains a possibility that each of the trio leaves.
Should that happen, Williams says that the savings Liverpool will make in terms of wages for new additions is likely to amount to more than £1m per week.
“FSG operate a self-funding model,” Williams explains to RTK. “They are one of only a handful of Premier League teams to have consistently turned a profit in the last decade or so.”
“They have done that because every penny they spend is fully costed. In other words, if Arne Slot and Richard Hughes want to spend more money year on year, revenue needs to increase at the same time.”
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“The upshot of that is that if they did shed Salah, Van Dijk and Alexander-Arnold’s wages, you’d be freeing up the best part of £1m per week in base pay and performance-related add-ons,” adds the expert.
“Of course, you would have to offset that against the opportunity cost of signing replacements. Obviously, that is going to cost you a hell of a lot more than the money you are saving on wages.”
What if Liverpool keep all three?
While the prospect of freeing up such a huge portion of the wage bill is clearly an enticing one, Liverpool supporters will mostly be hoping for the opposite resolution, with the trio staying put.
In that scenario, Williams goes on to explain that the impact on future budgets is harder to pinpoint.
“As far as the impact of retaining them would have on the budget in January it depends what they have budgeted for,” he says. “FSG are so forensic when it comes to the finances – they will set provisional budgets four or five windows in advance.”
“There are events where they will have to recalibrate budgets based on, for example, how far they go in the Champions League and the prize money that brings, but I think you’re usually looking at nudging the budgets up rather than down as the base amount will be a worst-case scenario.”
Whatever way you look at it, Williams says that losing Van Dijk, Salah and Alexander-Arnold is likely to be costly for Liverpool, as the money needed to replace all three would outweigh the short-term wage related positive.
“Either way, if you lost any or all of the three out-of-contract players, you’re going to have more wriggle room in the short term, but potentially much less once you make the signings necessary to fill those gaps,” he concludes.
“In terms of PSR, that is a non-issue for Liverpool. They have more headroom than almost any other club domestically and in Europe.
“So, any decision they make with regards to renewals and the budget in January and beyond will be based on what they are willing to invest, not on limitations imposed by Premier League spending rules.”
