Liverpool Get To Decide Where The Finish Line Is In Title Race

Today at 06:36 AM

The Premier League is far from over, but the math(s) is strongly in Liverpool's favor.

This post is not one to get carried away.

There's a lot of football left.

Anything can happen.

But.

These Reds are mustard, and after weeks of not getting what they deserved, plus 90 minutes of staring into the abyss yesterday, two late strikes sealed a deserved win for Liverpool at a tough away ground.

Arsenal subsequently dropping points was also significant, and not just psychologically or emotionally. The math(s) now make it very difficult for Arsenal, barring a second half collapse by Liverpool.

Simply: Liverpool get to decide where the finish line is.

The Reds continue to be the only side on a 90+ point pace. Their current season average of 2.38 points per game (ppg) would be a 90 or 91 point season over 38 games. This is despite two disappointing (and undeserved, more on that in a bit) draws to Manchester United and Nottingham Forest in their last two league games, thus dragging down average ppg.

Throughout the league campaign, especially after Manchester City's complete collapse, Liverpool have looked the only side capable of reaching or exceeding 90 points. Again, this is not just an eye test, this is about consistently putting in the performances and getting the results that a 90-point side needs to get.

As for Arsenal, they look nowhere near a side that can get 90 points. Arsenal are currently running at 2.0 ppg, that's 76 points over a whole season, usually a mark good enough for Champions League qualification, not league title winning form.

For Liverpool to hit 90 points, they need to run at 2.35 ppg for the rest of the season, slightly down from their current 2.38 average. That's 12 wins, 4 draws, and a loss in their remaining 17 matches, which is not a stretch to imagine this side achieving in the run in.

Arsenal, on the other hand, can currently only get a maximum of 92 points if they win out. So they would need 15 wins and a draw in their last 16 to hit 90 points. That's making a jump from 2.0 ppg to 2.88, or a 109-point pace over 38 games.

And among their remaining games, you would expect them to have to get a win at Anfield in order to really give themselves a chance, a tall order indeed.

Once again: Liverpool get to determine where the finish line is.

For example, if instead of finishing with 12 wins, 4 draws, and a loss (90 points), they finish with 13 wins and 4 draws, or 14 wins a draw and 2 losses, they hit 93 points and cannot be caught, even if Arsenal win out.

At this juncture, it is far easier to imagine Liverpool getting 13 or 14 wins, while still allowing for 3-4 matches with dropped points, than it is for Arsenal to suddenly win 15 of their last 16 or win out, when they have already dropped points in 10 of their 22 league matches so far.

The eye test, as well as results so far, are one thing. But the underlying data continues to tell the same story: these Reds are mustard, and deserve to be league leaders.

According to Opta, Liverpool lead the league in expected goals (xG), expected goals against (xGA), expected goal difference (xGD), and expected points (xPTS). And in some of the categories, it's not particularly close.

Looking at xG first, the Reds are clear favorites (actual numbers in parenthesis):

1. Liverpool: 50.23 (50)
2. Bournemouth: 43.34 (36)
3. Chelsea: 42.87 (41)
4. Man City: 38.58 (38)
5. Newcastle: 37.99 (38)
6. Arsenal: 37.78 (43)

Liverpool are about on par with their xG, despite underperforming in their last three league outings against United (2.82 xG to 2 goals scored), Forest (1.99 xG to 1 goal scored), and Brentford (3.43 xG to 2 goals scored). While standard variance means that xG does not always predict the outcome of individual matches, overall it is a pretty good predictor of things over the course of a season, as we are seeing.

It is interesting to note that Arsenal are actually overperforming their xG, no doubt because of their well-noted set piece exceptionalism. However, were I an Arsenal fan, this would be worrying because you would need them to continue overperforming, if not exceed their current level of overperformance to catch up to Liverpool in attack.

Moving on to xGA:

1. Liverpool: 18.97 (20)
2. Arsenal: 19.92 (21)
3. Forest: 23.70 (20)
4. Fulham: 26.91 (30)
5. Aston Villa: 27.33 (34)

Here we see that Liverpool and Arsenal are the top two defenses in the league, and comfortably so. However, it is the Reds who are once again top defensive performers, with the actual number of goals conceded roughly equaling what the underlying stats say.

However! Arsenal fans might point out that we have played one game fewer. Even still, Liverpool are averaging 0.90 xGA per game compared to Arsenal's 0.91 xGA. The difference is effectively negligible. Moving on.

Looking at the xGD, especially on a per-game basis, is quite revealing:

1. Liverpool: 31.26 (30)/1.49 xGD per game
2. Arsenal: 17.96 (22)/0.82 xGD per game
3. Bournemouth: 15.11 (10)/0.69 xGD per game
4. Chelsea: 12.65 (15)/0.60 xGD per game
5. Newcastle: 10.41 (12)/0.47 xGD per game

Once again, it should be no surprise that Liverpool and Arsenal are the top two performers in this metric. And once again, Arsenal should be concerned. Not only are they overperforming their expected goal difference in a way that might not be sustainable, but their underlying stats put them far closer to the three teams below them than to Liverpool.

The last three league matches for the Reds have been mildly concerning, purely from a results perspective. However, they've continued performing well, and last night they got their just rewards from those performances, even if they left it late.

If they continue performing at the level that they have been—a level that is well supported from the underlying numbers—they will likely approach, if not exceed, 90 points, and everyone else will be left fighting for Champions League places.

Liverpool get to decide where the finish line is.

If it's 90+ points, Arsenal really have their work cut out for them.