The Mysteries of Deepdale – and a couple of old friends

Today at 09:38 AM

This is one of the times I'm grateful my remit is a preview, not a prediction.

On top of my hopeless record at prediction, games involving Preston are notoriously hard to forecast. Even within the glorious general unpredictability of the Championship, their results stand out as enigmatic.

Especially at Deepdale.

At home last season they beat, among others, Middlesbrough, Leeds and Ipswich. And lost to QPR, Cardiff and Stoke.

What sense can you make of that?

Staying for a moment with last season, City's two games with them were at the extremes of memorability. A 0-0 draw at Carrow Road in December 2023 was eminently forgettable. The return at Deepdale in April, though, was pivotal to the playoff ambitions of both.

Gabby Sara's 86th-minute winner virtually sealed Preston's fate of staying in the Championship, and virtually sealed ours of being in the playoffs.

Six months later, both teams find themselves under very different management. The Hoffball project is so engrossing, and so pleasing when it works, that we barely miss Gabby Sara.

Preston's change is as dramatic. Under Ryan Lowe, they conceded fewer goals than City last season but were by far the lowest scorers of the top ten.

Lowe was replaced in late August by Paul Heckingbottom, who's remembered with some affection at Norwich despite only playing 15 games for us back in 2002-03.

His main mark, though, has been as manager of Sheffield United between 2021 and last year. After steadying the ship he inherited in rocky waters, he took them to the promotion they craved. The Premier League proved a painful experience, though – we know the feeling – and he was sacked in December 2023 with United adrift.

One interesting sidebar. Heckingbottom's predecessor at Sheffield United was Chris Wilder, who's also his successor.

Football, eh?

Like JHT at Norwich, he brings a distinct change of style to Deepdale. Asked about his predecessor's solid defence but almost invisible attack, his response was telling: "I don't want to be bored standing on the touchline".

What's been his impact so far? It hasn't been a goal-fest – but undoubtedly an improvement, especially at home.  

Preston started the season with a home defeat to the above-mentioned Sheffield United. Since then, though, their four league games at Deepdale have yielded three wins and a draw. Notable ones, too: they've beaten Luton, Watford and Coventry, drawn with Blackburn.

Heckingbottom may be looking for a more adventurous style but the striking feature of those four games is that his defence hasn't been breached. They've scored five, conceded none – a clear challenge to City.

Preston's continued resilience also showed in their last away game, a battling 0-0 draw at high-flying Burnley.  

While they seem to be managing it, Preston have had one setback that should help the Canaries.

Through August and September, their main goalscorer was Milutin Osmajic, until he made the unfortunate decision to bite an opponent during the local derby with Blackburn.

It was missed by the officials, but even in the VAR-less Championship, you don't get away with that. On video evidence, he was charged and received an eight-match ban.

(Given our past problems with Luis Suarez, it's probably a relief not to face another biter.)

In his absence, the biggest threat to JHT's ambitions may come from a fellow Dane: striker Emil Riis, who scored the winner in Preston's 1-0 win over Coventry on Saturday.

One familiar face who'll probably be starting for Preston is Robbie Brady. Some other City fans might share my view that he never fulfilled his potential, either with us or elsewhere – but his left foot is still a weapon to be wary of.

As for City, the Hoffball journey continues. At this point, we're clearly capable of brilliant performances like Hull and not-so-brilliant ones.

One of the determining factors is surely ball retention. With JHT's quick-passing style, inevitably, we'll sometimes lose possession. The difference between better and less good performances is how often we do it – how often we give the ball away versus how often we can move it successfully through the phases into attacking positions.

For future recruitment, I'd expect JHT to put considerable emphasis on the ability to keep the ball in tight situations.

In the meantime, it seems one of Tuesday's challenges will be to overcome the loss of Marcelino Nunez more effectively than we did at Stoke. The main options are two gifted but raw summer recruits: Oscar Schwartau and Amankwah Forson.

Of the two, I see special talent in Schwartau. He has rough edges and is still adjusting to the pace of the division, but his composure and vision are remarkable for an 18-year-old.

In summary, this is a tough game to predict between teams with almost identical recent records. Our last six games have been 3 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat; theirs… 2 wins, 3 draws, 1 defeat.

That makes any prediction even harder than my earlier disclaimer. In fairness to readers, though, I should have a go.

It may be another respectable away draw for City.

Or perhaps an away win.

Or maybe a home win.

OTBC.