Rangers Europa League permutations: long-shot Gers need favour from Manchester United
01/24/2025 09:30 AM
Rangers are licking their wounds after Europa League defeat to Manchester United left the club staring at a playoff round tie.
The Gers have slipped down to 13th in the revamped League Phase table with an eighth place finish and automatic bye to the round of 16 now a sizeable long shot.
But with a place in the Europa League playoff round all but reserved, here's what needs to happen for the Gers to finish amongst the tournament favourites.
Rangers must beat USG to have Europa League last 16 chance
First off, Rangers will need to beat Belgian side Union Saint Gilloise when they travel to Ibrox Stadium next week.
The Pro League outfit are 15th in the Europa League table and have plenty to fight for as they look to also guarantee progression to the next round of the competition.
Rangers played USG in a Champions League qualifier in the 22/23 season and after a 2-0 defeat in Belgium roared back with a 3-0 win at Ibrox.
Similar would be welcomed by Rangers fans this time out and would guarantee the Ibrox side 14 points from eight matches at the tournament.
Rangers need one of Europa League quartet to lose
Things are very tight going into the final Europa League matchday and Rangers will need a number of favours in order to progress.
As things stand there are no fewer than 15 teams in the hunt for the eight spots which would guarantee safe progression to the competition's last 16, including USG.
Rangers are on 11 points and thus are competing all the way up to 5th in the table, with Lyon, Tottenham, Anderlecht and FCSB currently occupying the final four places and all on 14 points.
Rangers need at least one of these teams to lose their final match to progress. These are as follows:
- Lyon v Ludogrets
- Tottenham v Elfsborg
- Anderlecht v Hoffenheim
- FCSB v Manchester United
It's worth noting that Rangers have a goal difference of +5 in the competition, which is level with Tottenham and higher than both Anderlecht (+3) and FSCB (+3)
Lyon have a GD of +8 and Rangers would need to win by two clear goals to overtake them in the event of their defeat against Ludogorets.
GD is used to separate teams who are level on points.
Rangers must then better playoff club's results
Presuming Rangers take full points from the match with USG, no gimme at this stage of the competition, the Gers would then need to hope the four teams above them take less points.
Rangers would progress if one of the above teams lost and Olympiacos (12 points), Viktoria Plzen (12 points), Bodo Glimt (13 points) and Galatasaray (13 points) all dropped points next Thursday.
Rangers have a superior goal difference to both Bodo Glimt (+3) and Galatasaray (+4) so would go above both teams in the event they draw their matches.
Alternatively, if two teams from 5th to 8th lost their matches, Rangers would progress if one team from 9th to 12th won their game.
If three teams lost from 5th to 8th, two sides between 9th to 12th could win their games.
If all four teams who currently occupy the playoff spots lost, then three of those between 9th and 12th could win and Rangers would still progress to the last 16 with victory over USG.
Here's who the teams positioned 9th to 12th will play on Europa League matchday eight.
- Olympiakos v Qarabag
- Athletic Bilbao v Viktoria Plzen
- OGC Nice v Bodo/Glimt
- Ajax v Galatasaray
Most likely Rangers route to Europa League last 16
We all know that football is an unpredictable business and ahead of Europa League we don't expect that's going to change.
When it comes to the four teams Rangers could replace who are currently occupying Europa League last 16 spots, Anderlecht and FCSB are the most likely to lose their matches.
Hoffenheim need to win to stand any chance of progression whilst Anderlecht are one of the form teams in the tournament.
But on the balance of things it looks like Rangers might need Manchester United to do their British neighbours a favour and overcome FCSB in Romania to realistically stand any chance.
That's because you'd expect Lyon and Tottenham to pick up wins at home.
Rangers would then need all four teams above them in the playoff places to drop points, something not outwith the realms of possibility given three of the four face tough away games.
But with Olympiacos odds on to overcome Qarabag, Rangers really are up against it to earn a buy to the Europa League last 16.
Most likely avenue1:Man United beat FCSB; Olympiacos, Plzen, Bodo and Galatasaray drop points.
Most likely avenue 2:Man United beat FCSB & Hoffenheim beat Anderlecht; Plzen, Bodo and Galatasaray drop points.
