Tottenham Hotspur vs. Arsenal Preview: No Luck Detected

09/13/2024 07:00 AM

The derby has not been kind to Spurs lately, but a reversal of fate would go a long way.

It is that time of year again. The North London Derby has arrived, this time with Tottenham Hotspur hosting the first edition (and wearing a home kit, lol). It has not been the desired start to the new season for Spurs, having collected just four points through the first three weeks, though there have been some encouraging signs on the pitch despite suboptimal final results.

Still, now is not the time for moral victories. Arsenal comes into the season with humongous expectations after falling short to City in back-to-back years and have gotten the best of its rival during this stretch. A Tottenham win could really kick this season into motion, but yet another derby defeat would only serve to build up the doubt.

Tottenham Hotspur (t-10th, 4pts) vs. Arsenal (t-3rd, 7pts)

Date: Sunday, September 5
Time: 9:00 am ET, 2:00 pm UK
Location: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
TV: USA Network (USA), Sky Sports Main Event (UK)

Arsenal started the season with a pair of 2-0 wins over Wolves and Villa but dropped points against Brighton before the international break, in part due to Declan Rice's foolish sending off. That unnecessary second yellow card — which keeps him out on Sunday — looks even worse after Martin Odegaard's ankle injury this week with Norway. After Spurs are dates with Atalanta and City, with PSG not far way either, so this is the start of a crucial period.

Despite these absences, few Tottenham supporters will be optimistic heading into this one. Spurs have lost the past two North London Derbies at home, with April's comeback attempt not enough after going down 0-3 in the first half. Tottenham did come away with a point last September at the Emirates as Heung-Min Son responded both times after the visitors went down, including after a hilarious Jorginho giveaway. Wonder if Arsenal could have used those two points last season...

Darts Only

The fanbase is experiencing some sort of glass-half-full Rorschach test right now regarding the squad's attacking potential. No team has enjoyed more possession this season and Spurs are second in both shots and shots on target. The team's six goals are tied for fourth in the league, yet it feels like all of this effort has been both wasteful and insufficient.

One goal from 15 shots against Leicester and a sole own goal from 20 against Newcastle highlight the issue. While Tottenham is consistently peppering the ball at the net, these are not exactly the highest-quality chances (evidenced by an xG ranking just eighth). Instead of James Maddison perfectly placed darts, or at least goals worthy of a dart-like celebration, the Spurs attack has instead resembled a blindfolded dart thrower, wishfully hoping to make a lucky shot.

The Arsenal defense remains formidable and has conceded just one goal so far, coming only after the team was down to 10 men. There will be shots allowed, as Spurs have actually faced fewer shots than their rivals, but continuing to just fire away aimlessly feels like a trap this weekend. Quality over quantity is key here; for Tottenham to find the back of the net, it will take some well-worked passages of play, not just long-distance rips like last time out at St James' Park.

Midfield Mania

This one is going to come down to the midfield, but perhaps not how everyone expected a couple weeks ago. Arsenal has been very strong in the middle of the pitch recently, but without Rice and Odegaard — plus Mikel Merino somehow getting injured before even playing a minute — this is a prime opportunity for Spurs to take control and finally reverse their fortunes in this fixture.

Ange Postecoglou has already started three different midfield trios in the first three matches, but it is unclear if this variety is actually a benefit or not, as perhaps it just shows that there is not an obvious best XI at the moment. Maddison will certainly start, and Yves Bissouma seems like the right choice to play the No. 6, but whether it is Pape Sarr, Dejan Kulusevski, or someone else joining them is difficult to decipher.

Either way, this is where the match will be decided. Sure, striker is still an open question and the back line has had some inopportune breakdowns this season, but how well Tottenham can turn its possession into meaningful opportunities and how well the midfield prevents Arsenal from controlling the match and striking on counters. It may be a stretch to say Spurs will have the decisive advantage here, but this is absolutely the situation the team needs to capitalize on.