How many points are needed to qualify for the Champions League knockouts?

09/17/2024 08:43 AM

The Champions League is back and has a brand new format, with the all-new league phase promising more drama for Europe’s top club competition.

Aston Villa and Liverpool kick-off the action tonight, with fellow Premier League clubs Manchester City and Arsenal in action later this week.

You may know how this new format works, with all 36 teams competing in one big league table, but there’s one nagging question: Just what will it take to reach the knockout phases?

Thankfully Opta have run the numbers and worked out exactly how many points the likes of Real Madrid will need to qualify for the round-of-16 and whether the likes of Celtic have a chance of reaching the play-offs.

What is the new Champions League format and how does it work?

This season, the 32-team group stage of the Champions League has been replaced by a league phase featuring 36 clubs, which is commonly being referred to as a 'Swiss model'.

Rather than playing three teams twice, each side has been drawn against eight different opponents; two from each of the four seeding pots. Every team will play four games at home and four away.

The results will determine where all 36 teams finish in one large league table. Those that finish in positions one to eight secure direct qualification to the round-of-16.

Clubs ranked nine to 24 enter into a knockout playoff contest, where victory will secure a spot in the round of 16. Teams in positions 25 to 36 are eliminated from the competition.

In the knockout phase, all games are contested home and away, culminating with a single leg final.

How many points are needed to reach the Champions League round-of-16?

We won’t know for certain how many points are required to finish in the top eight and qualify directly for the round-of-16 until near the end of the league phase.

However, Opta have calculated that 15 points out of a possible 24 is most likely to be enough, so win five of eight games and you can consider yourself through.

The margins are tight though. While they say that 15 points gives teams a 73% chance of making it into the top eight, 16 points gives you a 98% chance but 14 points is only worth a 28% chance. As UEFA stress, every point, very goal matters.

How many points are needed to reach the Champions League play-offs?

Again, we won’t know for sure until nearer the time, but Opta calculate that 10 points would almost certainly guarantee a spot in the play-offs.

Nine points could also be enough, with a 69% chance of progression while eight points only gives you a 16% chance.

If we say nine points is the minimum target, that means teams could qualify for the knockouts by winning just three games and losing the other five.

What happens if two teams finish level on points in the Champions League?

It’s very likely multiple teams will find themselves on the same number of pointsin the big league table.

In order to determine who finishes where, the first tiebreaker used will be goal difference, followed by goals scored, away goals scored, wins and away wins.

Should all of them fail, it goes to the higher number of points obtained collectively by league phase opponents, then the superior collective goal difference of league phase opponents and then higher number of goals scored collectively by league phase opponents.

If somehow that does not separate two or more teams we go to the lower disciplinary points total and finally, if all else fails, their UEFA club coefficient ranking.

Is the Champions League knockout draw seeded?

Yes. In the play-off round, teams that finish between 9th-16th will be seeded, meaning they’ll play away to a team who finished 17th-24th in the first-leg before hosting the second.

The top eight finishers will then be seeded for the round-of-16 where they’ll face the play-off winners.

The draw for who plays who in the knockouts will not entirely be random, with UEFA hinting that the results of the league phase will play some kind of role.

They say: ‘To strengthen the synergy between the league and knockout phases, and to provide more sporting incentive during the league phase, the pairings of the knockout phase will also be partly determined by the league phase rankings, with a draw which likewise determines and lays out the route for teams to reach the final.’

For more stories like this, check our sport page.

Follow Metro Sport for the latest news on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.