Chelsea's xG stats compared to September show something interesting about development under Maresca

Today at 11:00 AM

Chelsea's bad result turned into a bad run, and now it's a proper slump. The Blues are 5 games without a win in the Premier League, and in desperate need of something to reverse the negative spiral of confidence which is doing them so much damage week after week as they slide further down the table.

If you're about to panic, there are statistical reasons to stay calm. A look at our expected goals difference (the quality of chances we create vs. the quality of chances we give away), we're 4th in the league. We're not massively overperforming or underperforming. We are where we deserve to be in the table, at least by this metric.

Interestingly, our actual xGD is +0.58 per 90 minutes. That's almost exactly what it was back in September (+0.56) when we looked at it following Enzo Maresca's first 3 games in the league. So despite the variance on the pitch in term of results, we've stayed pretty steady in terms of underlying numbers.

What has changed in the last few games? Well xG is falling – we have only achieved more than 2 xG in a game once since mid-December's win over Brentford, and that was on Tuesday against Bournemouth.

Our xG against has remained pretty solid, although that too has trended in the wrong direction since Wesley Fofana got injured against Aston Villa at the start of December.

Wolves look juicy opposition for Blues to set things right

A game like Tuesday's where we dominated the first half, created 2.5 xG and almost lost is always going to create panic. But the reality is that we just need a few things to break our way, and Monday's game against Wolves should be the perfect chance to do just that.

Their xGD is -0.59, fourth bottom in the league, and in a home game with a week to prepare, there's no reason we shouldn't be able to blow them away.