Everton at Leicester: Opposition Analysis | An Early Six-pointer as Pressure Mounts

Today at 12:46 AM

The Blues cannot afford to lose, but they really need to win

It's been a resolutely grim start to the season for Everton, especially disappointing considering that the team had amassed a 48-point haul last term — before deductions imposed for financial breaches by the club. A reasonable summer transfer window, in which many - but not all - weak areas in the squad were reinforced, suggested that Blues fans could look forward to a stress-free mid-table finish.

Hardly the stuff of dreams, but after trekking through the parched wasteland of the past few years, the prospect of a boring season of mediocrity, heading towards the oasis that will be the new Everton Stadium, was welcome. It hasn't quite worked out that way, however. Instead, the team has won only once this term — and that against fourth-tier outfit Doncaster Rovers.

Smashed by both Brighton and Tottenham Hotspur and beaten when leading handily against Bournemouth and Aston Villa, Tuesday's meek exit from the EFL Cup, at Goodison Park, to newly-promoted Southampton, almost went by the wayside by way of comparison. The pressure is now firmly on Sean Dyche to reverse the team's fortunes.

That task begins this afternoon, with a visit to Leicester City.

Form

The East Midlands outfit fell out of the top flight at the end of the 2022/23 season, in which they finished 18th, two points and one place behind Everton. Cue an exodus of talent, with names such as James Maddison, Harvey Barnes, Youri Tielemans and Timothy Castagne heading for the exit door, as the club looked to shed big wages and raise funds. Enzo Maresca was brought in to negotiate a route back up to the Premier League and did so at the first time of asking, winning the Championship title by a point, ahead of Ipswich Town.

The Italian was coaxed away to big-spending Chelsea in the summer, leaving the Foxes to replace him with ex-Nottingham Forest boss Steve Cooper. They've spent relatively modestly to support the new man — €87m, balanced against €35.4m in sales. The latter sum was entirely raised from the sale of Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, a key man in their promotion campaign, to Maresca's Chelsea. Otherwise, the club shed a few players on free transfers, the most noteworthy being Kelechi Iheanacho, once linked to Everton.

Arriving to boost Cooper's squad were a host of players — nine in all, most of whom have played a part in the early part of the season. Heavily involved have been young winger Abdul Fatawu Issahaku (€17m from Sporting Club de Portugal), Atalanta centre half Caleb Okili (€14m), veteran forward Jordan Ayew from Crystal Palace (€5.9m), Spurs midfielder Oliver Skipp (€23.5m), winger Bobby De Cordova-Reid (loan, from Fulham) and teenage Brighton attacking midfielder Facundo Buonanotte, also on loan.

Leicester kicked off the campaign with a creditable home draw with Spurs, a game in which they'd looked out of their depth and hopelessly passive, but rallied in the second half. A close, but clear away loss to Fulham followed, and then the Midlanders crushed League Two side Tranmere Rovers 4-0 in an EFL Cup tie. They ran Villa close in losing at the King Power Stadium and last time out led Palace by two goals, before being pegged back via a penalty kick in added time. The Foxes sit in 15th place in the embryonic league standings.

Style of Play

Cooper has implemented a 4-2-3-1 formation so far this season, though did switch it up to a 3-4-3 for the trip to the Cottagers in week two. While at Nottingham Forest he preferred to play on the front foot, with control of the ball, but shifted quite dramatically in the Premier League, to a more conservative approach. The tougher it got at Forest, the more defensive they became and Cooper looks to be setting up in a similar way with his new side.

Against Spurs, the Foxes barely got out of their own half in the opening period, so concerned were they in stopping their illustrious opponents. Only after scoring a goal from nowhere, after the restart did they push men forward and this actually served to rock the North Londoners, who had been strolling around the pitch in what was essentially an attack versus defence training match until then.

Leicester haven't quite retreated back into their shell since, though they are very much set up to play a cautious game, sitting deep and with plenty of bodies back, relying on fast wingers to carry a counterattacking threat. Their fullbacks do get forward in support, but Cooper has been prioritizing protecting the back line, by selecting a primarily defensive trio of midfielders. The hosts rank third from bottom in share of possession - with 41.3% - and are generating only 8.8 attempts on goal per 90 minutes.

Their pass completion percentage of 81.6 is middling and of their five goals, four have been from open play and one from a set-piece situation. Although they look to score on the break, only 10.6% of their passes go long, compared with 20.7% for the Blues. The Foxes are allowing 15.8 shots per 90. They are ranked top in the division in terms of blocking the opposition's shots and passes.

Player Assessment

Jamie Vardy is - incredibly - still leading the line for Leicester, at the grand age of 37. He's not as active as he used to be and while no longer possessing the speed of old, he still can move quickly over short distances and makes intelligent runs. The veteran, who has two goals already this term, specifically targeted Michael Keane the last time the two teams met, back in May of last year.

Right winger Issahaku has the speed to threaten the Everton defence. A willing runner, he's attempted 7.33 dribbles, with a 27.3% success rate and made 3.0 progressive carries per match. The 20-year-old is active on defence, leading the team in combined tackles and interceptions per 90 minutes, with 6.0.

Oft-linked with the Blues during the summer, as his contract with Leicester expired, Wilfred Ndidi eventually re-signed with the Foxes. He's been pushed into an advanced central role in the last two matches. Against Palace, the defensive midfielder led the team in key passes, with four, but also added more solidity to the centre of the park, with Skipp and Harry Winks operating in behind.

Solution

Dyche could be without at least nine players for today's trip to the East Midlands, as he outlined at length during Thursday's press conference, reading the list of players off a piece of paper he'd brought with him, somewhat eccentrically. Despite some being late calls, it looks like Everton will field a back four containing James Tarkowski, Vitalii Mykolenko and Keane, with summer recruit Jake O'Brien again left out. Who lines up as the team's rotating right back is anyone's guess, at this point.

Dwight McNeil leads Everton's creative statistics by a mile - substantially from corner kicks - and is a near certainty to start either on the left, or - as Dyche seems to prefer currently - behind the striker, who will probably be Dominic Calvert-Lewin. Iliman Ndiaye was quiet on Tuesday and against Villa, but should retain his place, as he's one of the only Blues players who is willing, or capable of carrying the ball forward.

The right winger will be Jack Harrison, though he's not offering a lot in the attacking third currently and Jesper Lindstrom's pace and clever runs could prove dangerous should the Dane be trusted. Midfield I can see being Abdoulaye Doucoure, who scored on Tuesday night, alongside either Orel Mangala or Tim Iroegbunam, with James Garner in with an outside chance of lining up as Everton's right back, given Kevin Thelwell name-checked him as on option for the position in yesterday's interview with Radio Merseyside.

This could prove to be a stagnant affair between two sides whose fear of losing the game trumps their desire to win it. Leicester will sit back in their compact shape and hope to expose the visitors in transition — and it's worth noting that the Toffees have already conceded a league-leading two goals to counterattacks this term. Should Everton be too cautious then the Foxes may gain confidence, feel that a win is within their grasp and try to get more bodies into the final third.

As for the Blues, it's hard to predict how they'll approach this match. Dyche will be acutely aware that avoiding defeat will ease the growing pressure on him, even if this game is one that the club should always be targeting as a rare away win. I don't see him pushing too much though, so we could end up seeing a contest in which both teams try to coax the other into overextending. It's possible that it could slumber for some time, before crackling into life as one team suddenly has to respond to adversity and chase the game.

I can't see much quality on show here, with any goal-mouth action being via knock downs to runners, lofted crosses and set-pieces on the Everton side and quick counterattacks against a slow visiting defence, from Leicester. A stalemate is on the cards.

Predication Leicester 1-1 Everton

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