Liverpool on course for £175m jackpot that easily funds Mohamed Salah and Trent Alexander-Arnold contracts

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If Trent Alexander-Arnold, Mohamed Salah and Virgil van Dijk were all to leave Liverpool after their contracts expire next summer, it would represent a turning point in the club’s history.

To lose three bona fide Anfield legends in one fell swoop would be a heartbreaker for Liverpool supporters and, according to many analysts, baffling from a financial point of view.

However, Fenway Sports Group (FSG) would argue that they have a way of doing things when it comes to contract structure and negotiations that has served them well in the past.

In their handling Salah and Van Dijk’s situations, there are echoes of how FSG have historically operated both at Liverpool and their wider sports empire.

FSG’s emphasis has always been on signing and retaining talents whose resale value will appreciate, not depreciate over the course of their contracts.

Most Liverpool fans would argue that the pair’s electric form this season combined and their emotional connection with supporters exceeds the diminishing economic utility that comes with age.

But that is not the way FSG, hardnosed businesspeople, think.

FSG’s cost control has earned them a reputation in football finance circles as one of the best ownership regimes in the sport.

Their view is that breaking their wage structure could lead to a Man United-style wage spiral.

With Trent Alexander-Arnold, the situation is different given that, aged 26 and arguably at the peak of his powers, his value to the club will only continue to climb as the years roll on.

Ultimately, the right-back holds the high card in negotiations with Liverpool, with Real Madrid willing and able to offer Alexander-Arnold a pay rise worth far more than what he can expect to earn on Merseyside.

FSG want Liverpool to be self sufficient, and that means that every penny Arne Slot, Richard Hughes and Michael Edwards put into the playing squad must be accounted for elsewhere.

Football clubs sort their income into three streams – commercial, matchday, and media.

In that latter department, Liverpool have received some very welcome news from Premier League HQ.

The finances involved may, however, beg the question as to why FSG cannot depart from their rigid financial model to do everything they can to keep hold of Salah, Van Dijk and Alexander-Arnold.

• READ MORE: FSG may have handed Liverpool a brand new transfer budget as Michael Edwards 'promised' January funds

Liverpool’s media income set to soar

Since 2019, Liverpool have earned over £1.95bn in money from broadcasters.

That is almost as much as the other two revenue streams combined over the same period.

Recently, some forecasters have suggested that the value of the Premier League’s domestic TV deal may be set to plateau after years of inflation.

However, news this week shows that rumours of the bubble bursting have been greatly exaggerated.

While proceedings at last Friday’s Premier League shareholder meeting were dominated by the APT debacle, it also emerged that TV revenue for the next cycle is up 17 per cent.

That takes the total amount that Liverpool and their peers will share from the pot to an astonishing £12.25bn.

Significantly, finance expert and author of the Vanity, Sanity and Reality newsletter Greg Cordell has broken down how the increase in rights will favour clubs like the Reds at the top end of the table.

His analysis shows that, if Liverpool maintain their position in 1st place in the Premier League this term, they will bank £175m.

If they retain the title next season, it will be worth £203m.

They are the kind of figures which, taken in isolation, could quote comfortably cover Salah, Alexander-Arnold and Van Dijk’s wages for the next three to five years.

• READ MORE: Why Liverpool owners FSG have just sent executive to meet Donald Trump as £2.3bn deal key

More than meets the eye in Salah, Van Dijk and Alexander-Arnold contract talks

The case for not FSG not putting their hand in their pocket to renew the trio’s contracts is diminishing every time the play for Liverpool at present, with Arne Slot’s side flying in the league and in Europe.

However, Tabloid headlines have led many of us to think that when a player is in contract talks, there is only one variable at player – their weekly wage.

The reality, as any agent will tell you, is far more complex.

When Salah last renewed his Liverpool deal in 2022, there were so many factors at play that Harvard Business School wrote a research paper on the negotiations with his agent, Ramy Abbas Issa.

In the modern era, image rights are often the sticking point for world class players with huge global followings independent of which club they play for.

Then, there is the face off between agent and club with regards to fixed and variable compensation. In layman’s terms, how much of their salary is made up of bonuses.

The nature of the dressing room is that players learn about details of their colleagues’ contracts and make similar demands, which is partly why FSG are so reluctant to make a rod for their own back.