Everton vs Newcastle United: Opposition Analysis | Battered Blues Defence to Be Tested

Today at 12:03 PM

Both team are hit with key injuries in what could be a dogged affair

Everton achieved liftoff last weekend with a first win of the league campaign, against Crystal Palace. As it stands, the Blues have the same number of points from their opening six games as last season, when they accrued enough positive results to stay well clear of a relegation fight. So, is there any need for panic?

Last term the promoted teams were well short of the required quality to compete in the top flight, although it seems this time around that Ipswich Town and to a lesser degree Leicester City may have enough about them to mount a serious effort at avoiding the drop. Consequently, the Toffees cannot be complacent.

Although Everton emerged with all three points last Saturday, the overall performance was not a strong one, particularly in a first half in which a better opponent than the Eagles could have decided the contest. Questions remain, therefore. The squad has enough quality and is without a doubt superior to the one that earned 48 points last term, but can Sean Dyche get the best out of them?

Next up for the Blues at Goodison Park in this evening's match is Newcastle United.

Form

Last season was a tough one for the Magpies. Firstly, their big-money midfield signing, Sandro Tonali received a ban for historical gambling offences, dating back to his time in Serie A and as a result ended up playing less than 700 minutes across all competitions; a poor return for a €64m investment. Their other major acquisition - Harvey Barnes - missed over four months with a foot injury and was able to start only seven games all season. An improved first team had its depth exposed by injuries and a Champions League campaign, and was unable to capitalize on a shock fourth-place finish the previous term.

Despite a late rally to secure seventh spot in the table, Manchester United's win in the FA Cup final meant that Newcastle missed out on even the consolation prize that is the Europa Conference League. To add to the glum mood around St. James' Park, despite the club being on paper the richest in world football, PSR constraints meant a summer of belt-tightening, resulting in the generation of a net €8m positive in player trading. Everton target Yankuba Minteh (€35m to Brighton) and academy product Elliot Anderson (€41.2m, Aston Villa) were offloaded due to the large accounting profits their sales provided, rather than any football considerations.

Spending was more limited, with the permanent signing of on-loan left back Lewis Hall from Chelsea for €33m being the most noteworthy. Otherwise, recruitment was modest, in the form of a free transfer for Bournemouth fullback Lloyd Kelly, a surprising outlay of €23.6m on Nottingham Forest's 30-year-old goalkeeper Odysseas Vlachodimoss and a €11.6m investment in Sheffield United's young Danish striker William Osula. If the league's aim is for PSR to obstruct the ability of affluent clubs to break into the established elite, then the mechanism appears to be working as intended, much to the frustration of Magpies fans.

This term, Newcastle have started a little better than the last. They were very poor in their opening match, against newly-promoted Southampton, but won 1-0 despite being reduced to ten men with an hour left to play. Largely outplayed by Bournemouth, the visitors salvaged a draw at the Vitality Stadium. Tottenham Hotspur dominated long stretches at St. James' but ended up on the losing side. A late flurry of goals saw them victorious on the road over Wolverhampton Wanderers. Well-beaten at Fulham, they emerged with a valuable home draw against Manchester City last time out. They arrive at Goodison sitting in seventh place.

Style of Play

Eddie Howe is firmly wedded to his 4-3-3 formation and it'd be a major shock if we see anything different tonight. The high-intensity approach he used last season appears to have been shelved in this, with Newcastle set up to play on the counter. They'd always looked to block passing routes in midfield, with the idea to spring on transition, but there seems to have been a definite shift to a more reactive approach, with the team dropping from a 52.2% share of possession during the 2023-24 campaign, to 44.6% this season.

Their pass completion of 81.6% ranks 15th in the division and they are a place lower in terms of shots generated per 90 minutes, with just 11.2. They are matching their xG (Expected Goals) statistic of 8.3, having found the back of the net eight times. They aren't a particularly direct side, with only 10.9% of their passes being classed as long. Today's visitors do quite heavily favour attacking down their left side, which is unsurprising considering this is where both Barnes and former Blue Anthony Gordon predominantly line up.

Defensively, Newcastle have been easier get at than might be expected, though partially this may be due to their more passive approach. They are permitting opponents to take 17.5 attempts per 90 — which ranks 17th in the division. They don't appear particularly susceptible to counterattacks, or set-piece situations — unlike Everton who have conceded two and three goals respectively already this term. The Magpies are middling in terms of xGA (Expected Goals Allowed), with 9.6, but have outperformed this metric in letting in only seven goals.

Player Assessment

One-time Everton fan favourite Gordon will likely be leading the line tonight, in the absence of injured starting striker Alexander Isak. He can play up front, but is generally less effective than on the left wing. Gordon managed 21 goal contributions last term, but has started slowly this season, possibly due to a demoralizing European Championships stint with England, which saw him granted just a single minute of action by Gareth Southgate. He did score from the penalty spot in Newcastle's last league outing. He does lead the team in key passes (2.5), completed crosses into the penalty area (1.43) and SCA (Shot-Creating Actions - 3.72) per 90.

Gordon's shift to centre forward opens up an opportunity for Barnes, who has found it hard to nail down a starting berth, given his teammate's impressive form. The ex-Leicester man leads the visitors with three league goals and is a proven danger cutting inside from the flank on his right foot. Adept at running with the ball at pace, Barnes leads the Magpies in progressive carries, with 3.89 per 90. Unsurprisingly, he also takes more shots than anyone else in black and white (3.89 per game) and will pose a major threat to whoever gets the nod at right back for the hosts today.

Solution

Newcastle's results have been better than their performances this season, which is not necessarily a bad place to be in, but is not a sustainable model. Eventually, if there's not an uptick, then results will balance out. Arguably, Everton's outings have deserved more than the single win, one draw and four defeats they've accrued so far, though they've not put in a consistently good 90 minutes in any of those games, so it's hard to feel any sense of injustice, exactly.

That's something Dyche has to correct, for the team to continue with a recent upturn in results. The Magpies are a good side, though with weaknesses. The absence of star striker Isak and the seemingly injury-prone number one centre half, Sven Botman, will hurt them. Likewise, Jarrad Branthwaite is a major doubt for the Toffees, whereas reports from Ukraine suggest Vitalii Mykolenko will be out for two-to-three weeks with a calf injury sustained late in the week. Nathan Patterson played 90 minutes for the under-21 side last night, so will not be involved.

This adds up to a defensive headache for Dyche. The ever-available Ashley Young will be switched to left back again, whereas James Garner will probably line up on the right — hardly ideal considering he'll be up against the fast, mobile and direct Barnes. The manager will surely slot Michael Keane in the centre, considering he's been puzzlingly fulsome with praise over the defender's performances this season.

Sadly, this means another missed opportunity to see where summer signing Jake O'Brien is at, in terms of a place in the squad. It's disheartening to see quite of few fans on social media writing off the Irishman, off just 26 minutes of action as a substitute in the debacle at Villa Park (in which he was used in a back three, at full back — bizarrely, then back at centre half), or - even more bafflingly - an uncertain outing against Roma in preseason. Contrast this "data" with the evidence of the ongoing car-crash that is a Keane/James Tarkowski defensive tandem under Dyche. The mind boggles.

Still, you can bet your house that the manager will turn to the ex-Burnley stalwart.

So how do Everton tackle this game? They've vacillated at Goodison this season from aggressive pressing (Brighton, Bournemouth) to passivity (Southampton, Palace). With Newcastle's pace in the front line and Branthwaite being unavailable, I can see the latter approach being favoured. Dyche is not one to change a team off a positive result, so the only changes will be enforced — with the exception of Jack Harrison, who was impactful from the bench last weekend, in place of the disappointing Jesper Lindstrom.

Again, you can take it to the bank that Harrison will line up today. Many praised Dyche's unusually decisive action to replace the Dane with Jack against Palace, but would he have been so proactive in making the reverse switch? Highly doubtful. It's true that Lindstrom was having a stinker, but you could have said the same about half a dozen Everton players in that first half.

I envision a cagey setup by the hosts, with the Magpies enjoying more of the ball than has been typical this season. The Blues could find themselves outmanned in midfield, given the visitors play three and Dwight McNeil will not drop back in to equalize things out. This could prove to be a frustrating watch, with lots of long balls hammered up towards Dominic Calvert-Lewin, marshalled by giant defender Dan Burn. Everton's defence scares me and I cannot see a clean sheet being attained, so it'll be up to McNeil and Iliman Ndiaye to attempt to conjure something at the other end. With zero confidence, I'm going for a draw today.

Prediction: Everton 1-1 Newcastle United

Statistics supplied courtesy of transfermarkt.com, fbref.com and whoscored.com