Kieran Maguire issues verdict on whether NSWE could ditch Atairos and sell Aston Villa for £1bn

Today at 10:19 AM

It is safe to say that Wes Edens and Nassef Sawiris are set for a tidy return on their investment when they eventually decide to cash in on Aston Villa.

With Villa in Champions League action again against Bologna tonight and just four points off the Premier League summit, there is no indication that that is in the duo’s plans.

But having first bought into the club for just £30m via their NSWE investment vehicle in 2016, Villa represent a huge nest egg for US private equity billionaire Edens and Egyptian business giant Sawiris.

Granted, the pair’s total investment has stretched beyond that initial £30m.

They paid a proportionate sum to buy Tony Xia’s remaining 45 per cent stake in 2017 and have since pumped in millions via several share issues.

However, the last capital injection came not from Edens and Sawiris but Villa’s third major stakeholder, the London-headquartered private equity firm Atairos who now own almost a third of the club’s equity.

There have been a number of developments in recent weeks that have signalled that something interesting is going with Atairos at Villa Park.

And TBR Football has spoken exclusively to Kieran Maguire, a football finance lecturer at Liverpool University and author of the Price of Football, to understand the investment company’s masterplan in B6.

• READ MORE: Matty Cash says Aston Villa have a £15m youngster who 'can do everything'

Villa, a £1bn club?

Villa – or more accurately their parent company V Sports, who also own a 29 per cent stake in Portuguese club Vitoria – have allotted a number of shares in the business recently.

The most recent capital injection came in September, when Atairos increased their stake by just less than five per cent for £50m.

On face value, that values the V Sports company at close to £1bn.

Is that a realistic appraisal?

“We have certainly seen an uptick in club values following the acquisition of Chelsea,” said Maguire.

“The owners of West Ham allegedly turned down £600-800m.

“Villa are a club with a lot of potential, but I don’t think they are quite a £1bn club at present.

“However, I think they have gone through the £500m barrier quite easily.

“With a couple more seasons in the Champions League and an expanded stadium and certainty of cash flows, you could see them as a £1bn club.

Atairos’s long-term plans at Villa Park

Typically, private equity companies want a significant return on their investment in a five to seven-year cycle.

But Maguire thinks that Atairos are likely playing the long game at Villa Park and are happy to take backseat while Edens and Sawiris continue to steer the ship.

“As far as Atairos are concerned, if they are happy with the appointees that Edens and Sawiris have made to date then they won’t want to get involved. They are looking at their exit route.

“What we are seeing with private equity, the old-school style, where you would want a return on your investment in a few years, is also being joined by a more long-term view.

“With Villa, that would have to be the case. There is lots of growth potential with Villa on a long-term basis and Atairos will want to ride that particular wave.

“Private equity are big on technology, new forms of media and the metaverse, which they think can deliver a lot.”

• READ MORE: Aston Villa keeping close tabs on Champions League striker who plays just like Romelu Lukaku

If not Atairos, who will Wes Edens and Nassef Sawiris sell to?

Some supporters have speculated that Atairos’s gran vision may ultimately be to take full control of Aston Villa.

However, Maguire argues that Edens and Sawiris would be able to extract maximum value from a third-party bidder.

“Why get in further when at some point you want to get out?

“I’m not necessarily convinced that Edens and Sawiris would want to sell to Atairos because there is a case to be made that they could maximise their return by going for an independent bidder.

“Never say never in football finance, but private equity is often happy to be a minority partner.

“If you are seen as the silent partner, you don’t get as much criticism coming your way. It’s the same situation as the Glazers at Man United. They have become the silent partner because everything has been handed to Jim Ratcliffe.”