Reading vs Cambridge United: Match Preview
12/03/2024 03:40 AM
Can the Royals make it two home wins in a matter of days?
A quick turnaround in writing and a quick turnaround in games. Almost straight after a very disappointing win against Harborough Town we go again against Cambridge United.
Cambridge currently sit in 22nd place, having not won a game in their last five, (three draws, two losses). However, things may be looking up for them as two of those draws were against last season's playoff teams in Barnsley and Bolton Wanderers.
Reading are the opposite: they haven't lost a game in five, (three wins, two draws) and currently sit in seventh place. They're also through to the third round of the FA Cup, where they'll play Burnley at home.
In this preview I am going to talk about that FA Cup game against Harborough, as well as tactically analysing how Cambridge play, looking at the importance of the ex-Cambridge lads in this game and giving my predictions!
What? League One matchday 17
Season? 2024/25
Who? Cambridge United
Where? Select Car Leasing Stadium
When? Tuesday December 3
Time? 20:00
Opposition manager? Garry Monk
The Harborough Town game
Sim put it very well in his match report by saying "I don't know about you, but I feel like I've aged about 10 years today. I need a lie down. Or a drink. Or both". Reading were poor at the weekend - one of the worst games I have ever seen us play. We were all over the place against a team that have to work normal jobs the next morning.
There were poor tactical decisions by Ruben Selles in not taking off Abraham Kanu before his red card as he wasn't playing his best game anyway; we could all see something like that happening to him. I think the players underestimated it to be an easy game.
Reading notoriously struggle against teams that play route one, look for set-pieces and have 11 men behind the ball, and that is exactly what Harborough did. The players that were here last year should have remembered this when we lost to Eastleigh last season. It shows that we need our experienced players to play as many games as they possibly can until we are able to afford other players.
Two players who I was very impressed with were Chem Campbell and Andre Garcia. I saw online that a lot of people thought Garcia was man of the match. I completely agree.
He was everywhere. He started off a little bit shaky, letting a few long balls get behind him, but being 16 and not as tall as some others that is understandable. However, his running, constant press and mentality at such a young age are amazing. We seriously have a talent on our hands and I really hope he is one we can keep for a while.
As for Campbell, it's the old saying of 'don't fall in love with a loan player'. I know that's an unpopular opinion on Campbell, but I have. In the last month he has had six goal contributions (four assists and two goals) in seven games.
He has been one of our best players and, as I have previously said, he is definitely a worthy Femi Azeez replacement. If we are unable to extend his loan past January then I really hope we can find someone else who is of a similar calibre. His first goal was a great strike and the second from a Garcia pass saw off the game.
I do want to have a quick word on Harborough themselves though. What a team they were and what a run it was. They really put up a good performance against the Royals and they were very unlucky not to get the win.
The problem is that it went to extra-time. The FA Cup was renowned for allowing the smaller teams to make a decent amount of money, and the main way they would have been able to do that was by forcing a team to a replay. Harborough would have had one and a chance to make even more money than they made on Sunday. It is an outrage that they have been denied this opportunity.
They lost but they lost gracefully, and it is a big achievement for Mitch Austin and his team for getting so far in the tournament. Very good luck for the rest of the season.
Cambridge United
Cambridge usually play a 3-4-3 formation with former Royal Michael Morrison being the heart of that defence. Reading tend to struggle against teams which play three centre-backs but I feel this game is our best chance to get all three points.
Cambridge are not on form at the moment and are struggling to score goals. When comparing the stats of the top scorers of each team, Reading's top scorer is striker Sam Smith with seven goals from an xG of 6.97 in 14 games, whereas Cambridge's top scorer is Sullay Kaikai, with three goals from a xG of 1.36 in 13 games.
The main point with these stats isn't the fact that Kaikai has only scored three in 13: it's the fact that he only has an xG of 1.36. A positive is that he is outperforming this figure, but the negative is that the problem isn't the striker himself: it's the creativity of the team. He has the ability to finish when in front of goal, but others don't seem to be giving him the chances to do so. This could be due to a defensive tactic.
Garry Monk has been known to play a cautious style of play - he did the same thing with Swansea City in the Premier League. This means that, if they win, it is usually a 2-1 win or a 1-0 win. What is down on paper as a 3-4-3 for most of the game is actually a 5-4-1, which is a lot harder to break down, especially with a three-attacker formation. This also means it is a lot easier to hit teams on the counter-attack.
However, every tactic has its flaw and I think I have found Cambridge's. It takes them a while to transition from this 3-4-3 into the 5-4-1. This means that, if the ball can be moved quickly, Reading have the ability to catch Cambridge on a counter themselves. Players such as Ben Elliott, Garcia and Lewis Wing could come in handy for this game.
Elliott has a good track record of getting from one end of the pitch to the other very quickly. This can come in really handy as the more numbers on a counter-attack the better. He has the ability to play a good pass or have a good shot on goal.
Garcia is rapid and that can be great - although I don't think he will start because he played the full 120 minutes and was hobbling towards the end of the game at the weekend. But if he does get a chance to play, I think he will be very effective.
Due to the lack of sharpness in transition of the Cambridge midfielders, a quick player can be effective to get into a position that is unmarked due to an out-of-position player. If Garcia does appear I reckon he will get a goal involvement.
Finally, Wing. He has a killer ball in his locker: this means he will be able to spray a pass into the ongoing players to create an opportunity. He also will be on hand for when a ball gets cleared to then wallop a long shot into the top corner.
The importance of ex-players
Harvey Knibbs has been an amazing asset to the squad in the past year and he has a key role to play on Tuesday. Scoring five goals in the past month, he has been on fire. Being rested in the match at the weekend, he should be full of energy.
In this difficult period of matches, he needs to be able to keep his form against his former club and I think he will. I reckon he will get a goal involvement, and I hope he celebrates but I don't think he will.
Sam Smith is another who has been pivotal in the Reading squad since his arrival. Scoring 22 goals since his return, our number 10 has really fit back into the squad alongside his teammates.
As said earlier, he is our top scorer this season and he is really proving what a good striker he is. His partnerships with Knibbs and Wing have really improved this season and I predict he will end the season with a minimum of 15 goals. Selles did try and bring him on at the weekend but being unable to means Smith is fully fit and ready to play against his old side.
My lineup
Joel Pereira will return in goal after being rested at the weekend. We really missed him against Harborough.
Our backline will return to usual with Michael Craig, Amadou Mbengue, Tyler Bindon and Jeriel Dorsett all coming back into the side.
Our midfield three will consist of Wing, Elliott and Charlie Savage. Wing and Elliott will be fit enough to play the full 90 due to being taken off at half-time at the weekend.
The front three will bring back Knibbs to play alongside superstar Smith and the revolutionised Campbell.
Score prediction: 2-0 Royals
I predict Dorsett and Knibbs will get the goals and Wing will create one of those chances.
It's a home game so good luck to those going - make sure to support the lads.
Come on you Royals!
